"Short of nuclear war itself,
population growth is the gravest issue the world faces.
If we do not act,
the problem will be solved
by famine, riots, insurrection and war."

    Robert McNamara,
Former US Secretary of Defense and World Bank President

Note the number on the clock, then hit the "Reload" or "Refresh" button of your browser to see how many people have been added since you started to read this; bookmark this page to see how many have been added when you return.
 
 

Picture a mobile hanging from the ceiling. Even though it appears that the pieces hang in isolation, they are completely interconnected and delicately balanced. A breath of wind or a slight pull on any individual piece causes all the others to move as well. A sharp tug on one piece causes all the others to jump. And if one piece is removed - if the string holding it is cut - the entire system tilts, and may even collapse.

                 From a population perspective, the mobile
                 looks like this. When human numbers
                 increase, human needs also increase. We
                 meet those needs by consuming more
                 resources. That consumption causes
                 environmental damage, because the
                 environment is the source of all our
                 essential resources. As more resources are
                 consumed, fewer are available. Resources
                 also become more scarce as environmental
                 damage increases, because the damaged
 environment can't produce as many resources.

 This resource scarcity causes a number of problems. If there isn't enough food, people go hungry. If there isn't enough water, people are thirsty. If jobs are scarce, people are unemployed. And if money is scarce, people fall into poverty.

 The way people respond to scarcity also causes problems. We work the environment even harder to obtain resources, and do even more damage. Sometimes we refuse to share with those of a
 different race, religion, class, or gender. (In some cultures, when food is scarce, males are fed and females go hungry.) When scarcity is acute, people may be forced to migrate in search of food, farmland, employment, or whatever resources they need. In
 some situations, they may revolt against the government, begin "ethnic cleansing," or go to war against their neighbors to seize their resources.

  World population reached six billion in 1999, and is currently increasing by 80 to 85 million people each year. Depending upon the choices we make over the next few decades, the United Nations projects world population in 2050 could be anywhere from 7.3 billion to 10.7 billion. That range assumes fertility will decline considerably in the future. If we continue to grow at the same rate we are today, the Earth’s population in 2050 will be 14.4 billion!

A number of factors drive this growth. One is that, even though fertility rates have come down worldwide, there are now more people of childbearing age than ever before. (Just over half the world’s population is under age 25.) As those three billion people start families over the next few decades, world population will likely increase by several billion.

Another reason for continued high levels of population growth is that fertility rates remain relatively high in some populous regions such as Africa and South Central Asia. Africa’s birth rate is almost 70 percent higher than the world average, and nearly four times that of the more developed nations. South Central Asia, where nearly one-quarter of the world’s people live, has an average birth rate 30 percent higher than world average, and almost three times as high as the more developed nations.

Child Laborers in Madagascar Photo by J. M. Derrien, ILO

Generally speaking, population growth is higher in those regions because levels of income and education are lower. People tend to choose the number of children they have for economic reasons; in poorer societies, children are often an asset. They help raise food, haul water, gather fuel wood, or work for wages outside the home. When having more children improves their economic security, people tend to have more children.

Education is also closely linked to population. The more education people have, the more economic options they generally have, and the fewer children they are likely to want or need. In the areas of the world where fertility is lowest - Europe, Japan, China, the former Soviet Bloc, and North America - education levels are correspondingly highest.

Finally, population is growing because declining mortality and increased longevity have shifted the balance between births and deaths, somewhat offsetting falling birth rates. Overall, population is still growing rapidly because more people are having children (even though they have fewer children on average); birth rates are higher in some of the most populous regions; fewer people die prematurely, and more people live longer. This combination has pushed world population from about two-and-a-half billion in 1950 to over six billion at the turn of the century.

The End