Rev: LU 13: Future of the Labor Movement

In trying to understand the unfolding of the future, one must consider all factors, external & internal, that may impact labor relations future direction

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The Figure: A Model of the Labor Relations Process demonstrates the relationships among internal participants of wkrs, unions, firms, the govt, & more, & external factors & participants such as tech, the econ, globalization, the mkt, the community & wider culture, the labor mkt, & more

In the future, at this time it is neither anticipated that the fundamental participants, nor the fundamental forces or trends, nor the relationships among them will drastically change

In the future it is anticipated that the direction & impact of the forces will change & some of the relationships among participants & forces will change

Understanding the future of labor relations necessitates understanding how & to what degree participants & structural forces will change

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Figure: A Model of the Labor Relations Process

	EXTERNAL INFLUENCES WILL EXERT DIRECT & SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE ON THE LABOR RELATIONS PROCESS
	These influences, which are largely interrelated, will constrain & limit negotiations of wages, econ benefits, wk rules, & other non econ subjects
	The realization of the global econ, coupled w/ the continuing trade deficit problems, high cap costs for investments in new tech, the state of the econ, & a wk force that is unprepared for a modern wkplace creates challenges as well as opportunities for all the participants in the labor relations process
	A trade deficit occurs where foreign imports are greater than exports
	The Bush recession which began in 2007 which took the Obama admin several yrs to deal w/, resulted in the decline of GDP, an increase in unemployment, the collapse of the stock mkt, the collapse of the housing mkt, the closing of plants, & more
	The Bush recession of 2007-09 was a 'reality check' on unions, mgrs, & wkrs; & resulted in re negotiations of many labor agreements
	Since 2015 there has been over 5 yrs of job increases, stk mkt growth, increase in the GDP, econ expansion, & more
	The prosperity of the 2010 meant that unions were able to negotiate some wage increases, but b/c of the low level of unionization in the econ, wages overall in the econ, have only grown slowly

	SOME OF THE MOST IMPORTANT EXT INFLUENCES FOR UNIONS TO ATTEND TO ARE PUBLIC OPINION & THE MEDIA
	Public opinion generate through the media will continue to influence wkr attitudes toward unions & their subsequent decisions to unionize &/or participate in various col barg activities such as strikes
	The extent of external influence on union & mgt participants has not been accurately measured & is: generally small, always there, always shifting, & variable in its significance
	A shift in media portrayal Of unions & col barg appears to be taking place
	Unions involved in Easter Airlines & Pittston coal miners' strikes in the 90s were portrayed as underdogs fighting for a principle against financially questionable mgt practices, & this has become more the norm than the exception
	During some stages of the 1990 prof baseball players' strike, mgt was portrayed as being more greedy & unreasonable than players
	However as is the case w/ many prof sports labor mgt conflicts, one reason the public often sides w/ mgt is b/c of the upper class level of the salaries the players receive, which are highly publicized
	It is important to note that the owners & their corps are much less well know, & people have little understanding that they receive even higher income from prof sports
	And any violence that occurs during any strike, eg the Pittston & Greyhound strikes, as well as allegations of corruption, only hurts the union image

	MGT'S RESPONSE TO EXT INFLUENCES WILL BE TO PURSUE GREATER CONTROL VIA 'HARD & SOFT' TACTICS
	In the future, mgt will seek labor agreements that increase its freedom to direct floor operations such as fewer job classifications, contain or reduce costs, & directly related compensation to the org's financial results
	Some firms will use tactics which increase pressure on the unions & their members prior to negotiations
	Some firms advertise for replacement wkrs & have new applicants line up outside the employment office w/in viewing distance of the wkplace so the present wkrs are aware of intentions to replace strikers

	LABOR'S RESPONSE TO EXT & INT INFLUENCES WILL BE TO MIN STRIKES & FOCUS ON COOPERATION, CAMPAIGNS, PUBLICITY, & LEGAL REMEDIES
	Unions will focus on external influences impacts on job security
	Labor agreement provisions for employment guarantees, advance notice of layoffs & tech change, restrictions on subcontracting, & job retraining & relocation services, & more
	Unions will be reluctant to use strikes to obtain their bargaining objectives
	The number of wkr days lost due to this barg alt has decreased in every decade since the 80s
	In response to 'hard ball' tactics of mgrs, unions will increasingly resort to corp campaigns as an alt to strikes
	Unions will wage campaigns on many fronts, making it difficult for mgt to plan a response as is possible in preparation for a strike
	Corp campaign tactics will include adverse publicity about the firm, consumer boycotts, targeting financial instits that do business w/ the firm, pol lobbying, & putting pressure on shareholders
	Unions will increase their use of info picketing & tele picketing to advise shoppers to avoid patronizing non union retail estb
	Unions will play an ever increasing role in the financial arena
	Unions are learning to use their financial clout by purchasing stock or participating in corp takeovers
	There will also be a greater focus by unions on ESOPs
	The AFL CIO has estb the Employee Partnership Fun (EPF) for which it hopes to raise funds for small & medium size financial deals

	THE INTERNAL INFLUENCES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR LABOR INCLUDE BARG APPROACHES, & A DEVELOPMENT OF COOPERATIVE RELATIONS
	The barg approaches that will be used by mgt & unions are difficult to predict
	It would appear that external influences will generate parallel goals for the participants; namely, the firms survival that is necessary for revenues, returns to shareholders, & wkrs' jobs
	This situation could result in more integrative, problem solving contract negotiations & admin
	The approach of problem solving contract negotiations advanced by the Bureau of Labor Mgt Relations & Cooperative Programs of the US DOL as a 'win win' approach to col barg
	The win win approach of the DOL included principles barg, collaborative barg, integrative bar, & mutual gain among its advocated practices
	Several conditions are necessary for labor mgt coop to occur on a wide range basis
	Mgt, union officials, & wkrs must clearly recognize a payoff for their efforts
	Unions might find it difficult to cooperate if their efforts resulted in higher productivity & fewer jobs
	Labor & mgt tend to forget their motivation for & related maintenance of cooperation in good times
	NEW MECHANISMS FOR COOPERATIVE LABOR RELATIONS WILL BE DEVELOPED
	Adequate mechanisms for cooperative efforts need to be estb
	In various wkr input programs, a 2 way commo mechanism needs to be estb so wkrs can voice opinions w/o fear of mgl retaliation & union officials do not have to worry about their org & positions being subverted by the process
	Problem solving relies on the sharing of sufficient, even confidential info such as financial & production data, sales, &/or revenue projections btwn mgt & unions so both may be informed participants
	Info exchange related to another cooperation prerequisite: sound interpersonal relationships
	Some research has indicated that this condition will be more important than econ pressures of the past in implementing successful cooperative programs
	Unions & mgt will need to trust each other & cooperation will be more likely to occur insinuations where at least some mgrs experience 'shared hardship' of reduced wages & benefits &/or layoffs

	ANTAGONISM WILL CONTINUE BTWN UNIONS & FIRMS B/C OF THE PRESENT LEGAL PROCEDURES OR ESTBING REP RTS FOR UNIONS
	There are reasons labor finds it difficult to trust mgt
	Wkrs find it difficult to accept mgt's requests to control wage demands &/or accept wage reductions when they read about exec pay levels & raises
	After adjusting or inflation, factory wkr pay rates have remained approximately constant
	Representation rts are essentially designed to lead to an adversarial relationship, esp in the 1st negotiation
	The organizing campaign typically includes unpleasant, perhaps degrading, statements & brochures about the opposite party
	If the union is successful, some negative sentiments are carried over to the negotiation table
	Both parties spend sizable amts of time, money, & resources in organizing campaigns, all of which could be spent on ways to make the org more productive & competitive
	Other nations have a less adversarial approach to the steps for organizing
	The Canadian procedure relies on card signing by wkrs to certify the union & 3rd party arbitration of the 1st contract if the 2 parties are unable to negotiate it on their own.
	Current law allows for extensive delays & minor penalties for violating the laws
	The extensive delays allowed by present law not only frustrate wkrs who want representation rts but provide the means by which firms may forestall unionization & wkr representation at the barg table
	W/ such small penalties, some firms build legal violation into their labor relations strats

	UNIONS WILL FOCUS ON CHANGES TO THE LAW & LEGAL REMEDIES TO ADDRESS 'FREE RIDERS' IN RT TO WK STATES, TO ORGANIZE SUPERVISORS, & TO CREATE CARD CHECK OFF REPRESENTATION
	In the future there will be a closer examination of some of the legal concepts that have been basic to the labor relations process
	Our public policy should examine labor rel processes in other nations & consider those concepts that work
	In the US, supervisory wkrs are excluded from union representation rts & after buyouts or plant closings, these jobholders were frequently the 1st ones to be laid off or fired
	In the changing nature of the wkplace, the line btwn supervisor & wkr is becoming ever more narrow
	Another concept to examine is the union obligation to represent barg unit wkrs who do not financially support the union
	It is not fair for union members to bay barg rep & contract admin expenses for the non paying wkrs
	In cases where the wkrs want union rep but are unable to achieve a majority, there should be some mechanism, called card check off, by which these wkrs can be represented or obtain some form of recognition rts for assoc members

	MANY BELIEVE THAT UNIONS ARE AN IMPORTANT BULWARK TO THE POWER OF CORPS
	The US cannot afford to allow the number of unions to shrink to such a small % that they no longer serve effectively as a balancing force to the corp coalition & govt
	Non unions wkrs should be educated to realize the 'spill overs' they receive from the labor agreements
	The future will not see an end of adversarial relationships & thus it will be difficult when corps hold out a handshake w/ one hand while trying to clobber unions w/ the other
	There is little reason to expect that govt at any level will substantially change the content & direction of existing labor legislation, except that Republican states are attacking unions at that level

	GENDER, RACE, IMMIGRATION, LGBT RTS, & MORE ARE ISSUES WHICH UNIONS ARE NOW ADDRESSING AS IMPORTANT WKPLACE & SOCIETAL ISSUES B/C THE PURSUIT OF JUSTICE REQUIRES IT
	In the future, as women become increasingly committed to the labor force, they may become less satisfied w/ their traditional jobs & so more prone to struggle for comparable worth & unionism
	As the South becomes increasingly industrialized, both racial tensions & anti union sentiments may decline
	Unions may win converts among college trained members of Baby Boomers, Gen X & the Millennial b/c only a fraction of these grps can be accommodated in the prof & mgrl jobs creating frustration which may incline them towards unions
	Immigration & the rts of immigrant wkrs as well as LGBT rts have been in the undergrd econ for too long, & thus have not been addressed by unions, corps, govt, wider society or others
	Unions are now developing mechanisms & policies to bring immigrant wkrs into the mainstream econ, recognizing them as green card wkrs, & eventually citizens
	Unions have supported the efforts of the LGBT community to receive fair treatment in the wkplace, including spousal benefits, freedom from discrim in hiring, firing, & promotions

UNIONS WILL FOCUS ON JUSTICE & VOICE FOR WKRS, & EXPAND THEIR EFFORTS TO ESTB JUSTICE & VOICE FOR ALL CITIZENS, UNION MEMBERSHIP NOTWITHSTANDING

Unions must move beyond just focusing on more wages & benefits & wkplace rules to consider the welfare of society as a whole

As Samuel Gompers stated,

We want more school houses & less jails, more books & less arsenals;...
More learning & less vice, more constant work & less crime,
more leisure & less greed, more justice & less revenge
In fact more of the opportunities to cultivate our better natures,
to make personhood more noble & beautiful, & childhood more happy & bright

There will continue to be internal struggles w/in unions on strat

Strats can focus on one or two wkr preference categories, including: first, short run, measurable & material improvements in the wkplace conditions, & second, long run broad improvements affecting wkrs off the job life

In the past unions have primarily focuses on short run material goals for wkrs on the job, but unions must, & are beginning to focus on long run improvement for all society

Unions in the future will, & are focusing on both short run benefits for wkrs & long run benefits for all of society

Other schisms are inevitable w/in the labor mvmt, such as that btwn younger & older wkrs

In some cases the trad benefits of seniority have been weakened by large layoffs & mgrl barg pressures for fewer job classifications

Addl barg over benefit cost containment such as insurance & pension will exacerbate the differences btwn younger & older wkrs, & a fair way forward must be found

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Outline on Forecasting

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FORECASTING USES HISTORICAL DATA TO PREDICT THE DIRECTION OF FUTURE TRENDS OF ONE OR SEVERAL VARIABLES, OR OF ENTIRE SCENARIOS

Perhaps the most common usage of forecasting is by firms to determine how to allocate their budgets for an upcoming period of time

Local, state, fed, & other levels of govt use forecasting in a number of areas such as: crime rates, econ development, population levels, usage of govt services, & much more to help in setting public policy in these areas

For firms, forecasting is typically based on demand for the goods & services it offers, compared to the cost of producing them

Investors utilize forecasting to determine if events affecting a firm, such as sales expectations, will increase or decrease the price of shares in that firm

Forecasting also provides an important benchmark for firms which have a long term perspective of operations

A prediction is a similar, but more general term for forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making statements about events which have not yet been observed

Examples of forecasting include: the estimation of a variable of interest at some specified future date such as population, the occurrence of an event such as a regime change, the development of a new technology such as self driving cars, the estb of a new social relationship such as gay marriage, & much more

Forecasting & prediction might refer to formal statistical methods employing: demographic, time series, cross sectional, or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods

Usage of the concepts of forecasting & prediction can differ btwn areas of application: for example, in hydrology, the terms forecasting is sometimes reserved for the est of values at certain specific future times, while the term prediction is used for more general est, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period

Probability, risk, inaccurate or scant data & uncertainty are central to forecasting & prediction

It is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts, though measurements of uncertainty are also problematic

When the CIA forecasted that a US military would find WMD in Iraq, they told Pres Bush Jr, it would be 'a slam dunk,' but it turned out there were not WMD

A primary concern for forecasting is whether the data is accurate & up to date

	FORECASTING UTILIZES BOTH QUANTITATIVE & QUALITATIVE METHODS & DATA
	Most forecasting by social scientists, firms, & govts utilize quant data & methods
	Qualitative forecasting techniques are subjective, based on the opinion & judgment of consumers & experts; they are appropriate when hist data is not available
	Qualitative forecasting is usually applied to intermediate or long range decisions
	Examples of qualitative forecasting methods include: informed opinion & judgment, the Delphi method, mkt research, hist life cycle analogy, & more
	Quantitative forecasting models are used to forecast future data as a function of past data; they are appropriate when hist data is available
	Quantitative forecasting methods are usually applied to short or intermediate range decisions, but may also be applied to long range forecasting
	Examples of quantitative forecasting methods include: election outcomes, suicide rates, birth rates, last period demand, simple & weighted N Period moving averages, simple exponential smoothing, multiplicative seasonal indexes, & more

	NAIVE FORECASTING IS THE SIMPLE PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE BASED ON PAST TRENDS, W/O MODIFICATION BASED ON OTHER FACTORS OR THEORY
	Naïve forecasts are the most cost effective forecasting model, & provide a benchmark against which more sophisticated models can be compared
	For stationary time series data, the naive approach says that the forecast for any period equals the hist average
	For time series data that are stationary in terms of first differences, the naïve forecast equals the previous period's actual value

	TIME SERIES FORECASTING PROJECTS HIST DATA INTO THE FUTURE, ALLOWING FOR VARIATIONS BASED ON OTHER FACTORS OR THEORY
	Time series methods use historical data as the basis of estimates of future outcomes
	Time series methods include methodologies such as: moving average weighted moving average Kalman filtering exponential smoothing auto regressive moving average (ARMA) auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) extrapolation linear prediction trend estimation growth curves statistical surveys & more

	CAUSAL FORECASTING METHODS IDENTIFY UNDERLYING FACTORS THAT MIGHT INFLUENCE THE VARIABLE THAT IS BEING FORECASTED
	Causal forecasting methods try to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast
	For example, info about climate patterns might improve the ability of a model to predict umbrella sales
	Forecasting models often take acct of regular seasonal variations
	In addition to climate, such variations can also be due to holidays & customs; one might predict that sales of college football apparel will be higher during the football season than during the off season
	Several informal methods used in causal forecasting do not employ strict algorithms, but instead use the judgment of the forecaster
	Some forecasts take acct of past relationships btwn variables: if one variable has, for example, been approximately linearly related to another for a long period of time, it may be appropriate to extrapolate such a relationship into the future, w/o necessarily understanding the reasons for the relationship
	One type of causal analysis, regression analysis, includes a large grp of methods for predicting future values of a variable using info about other variables
	The social sciences uses regression analysis & a number of other statistical methods to make predictions on everything from development of androgyny as a lifestyle to zoophilia
	Statistical methods include both parametric (linear or non linear) and non parametric techniques

	JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING INCORPORATES INTUITIVE JUDGMENTS, OPINIONS, OBSERVATIONS, SUBJECTIVE DATA, & SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ESTIMATES
	Judgmental forecasting methods include: composite forecasts Cooke's method Delphi method forecast by analogy scenario building
	Judgmental forecasting is often done by experts in the field being forecasted
	Experts can often make a forecast for 1 to 5 yrs w/o in depth analysis

	ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FORECASTING USES AI ALGORITHMS SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO FORECAST ONE OR MORE VARIABLES
	AI methods include: artificial neural networks grp method of data handling support vector machines crowd sourcing
	Often AI forecasting methods are carried out by specialized programs loosely labeled: data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, & big data

	THE MORE SOPHISTICATED FORECASTERS OFTEN INCLUDE REFLEXIVE THEORY; THE IDEA THAT AS CONDITIONS CHANGE IN THE FUTURE, HUMANS WILL NOT MERELY EXPERIENCE CHANGE, THEY WILL ACT TO MAKE CHANGE, & REACT TO CHANGE
	Many socioeconomic forecasters often try to include a humanist, ie reflexive, factor
	Ritzer & Habermas have developed reflexive theories
	See Also: Ritzer
	See Also: Habermas
	Those embracing reflexive theory claim that humans, through deliberate action, can have a profound influence on the future
	Those embracing reflexive theory argue that it should be regarded a real possibility w/in our current socio econ sys that its future may be influenced by, to a varying degree, individuals & small grps of individuals
	Recent popular publications like Capital in the Twenty First Century are regarded as major contributors to the increasingly apparent possibility of such reality where humans see a problem, ie rising inequality, & react to change it
	It is argued that the influence which private & public investments have on our future can never be completely disconnected from the individual Machiavellian human character, but perhaps it can be harnessed for the benefit of humanity through democratic oversight
	The methods that disregard the reflexive factor can never accurately predict our socio econ future
	The Forecasting Flow Chart depicts a series of observations, analyses, simulations, & decisions which may be made to construct a forecast using either quantitative (statistical) or qualitative (judgmental) methods

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A Forecasting Flow Chart

The Forecasting Flow Chart depicts a series of observations, analyses, simulations, & decisions which may be made to construct a forecast using either quantitative (statistical) or qualitative (judgmental) methods

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Outline on Future Scenarios

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ONE IMPORTANT ASPECT OF FUTUROLOGY IS TO OFFER FUTURE SCENARIOS, IE PREDICTIONS OF AN OUTLINE OF A HYPOTHESIZED CHAIN OF EVENTS

A scenario is an outline of a hypothesized chain of events

There are many possible scenarios that spring from the key themes in society

Will the internet bring about new patters of human interaction?
Will we be able to cope w/ the env stresses that increasing industrialization & rapid population growth will bring to many parts of the world?
Will The US retain its position as the world's most powerful & influential nation?
Will more nations move up from peripheral status to join the semi periphery & care nations of the future world sys?
What kind of problems will the future bring for local regional, & international development?
What new tech is likely to have the most impact in reshaping societies?
Will globalization undermine regional cultures?
Will tech & human determination be able to cope w/ the env stresses that industrialization in the periphery & rapid pop increases will create?
Will new regions emerge based on new types of connectivity such as trade, the internet, or any number of pol mvmts such as mobilization against globalization or the human rts mvmt?

Using what social scientists from a range of fields, developing a scenario is done by looking back at the way that the present condition related to the scenario has unfolded

The next step is to look at how present conditions are trending

The 3rd step is to use what is known about soc change, again from a number of soc sci fields, & the basic principles of the soc sciences to begin to map out the kinds of structures, cultures, processes, & dynamics that the future most probably holds

Future scenarios must be mapped out from a combination of existing structures, & budding trends

The future must be anticipated from how the shreds of tradition & the strands of contemporary change will be rewoven into new societies

While developing future scenarios is speculative & complex, we can draw w/ a good deal of confidence on what we know about soc processes, soc change & the major principles of the soc sciences

Futurists see soc change as a composite aggregation, ie not a simple linear causal change, of local or micro social grpings interacting to create the larger processes & structures of change that operate w/in the dynamic framework of the world sys

Many important dimensions exist to soc org & soc change, from the demographic dimension through the urban

	IN FORECASTING SCENARIOS, IT IS CLEAR THAT SOME ASPECTS ARE MORE PREDICTABLE THAN OTHERS, & SOME ASPECTS ARE MORE CHAOTIC THAN OTHERS
	As we look to the future, we can appreciate that some dimensions of soc org are more certain than others
	In some ways the future is already here, embedded in the world's instit structures & in the dynamics of its pop
	We know more about demographics than at any time in history but there are still major gaps in our knowledge
	We know a much more than in the past about the dist of resources & constraints, about the character of local & regional econs, about the legal & pol frameworks w/in which soc change will take place
	We also merely guess at some aspects of the future
	Two of the most speculative realms are those of pol & tech
	While we can foresee some of the possibilities, politics & technology are both likely to spring surprises at any time
	We may be able to understand, for example, the spread & intensification of ethno nationalism, a new railway era based on high speed trains, the rise of energy efficiency econs, the diversification of wkplace, & more
	We now know we had hints at such events as Sept 11th, the rise of ISIS, challenges from N Korea, conflicts btwn China & Japan, & more, but these events are essentially nearly impossible to predict, w/ current social science
	Such events as Sept 11th are a powerful example of the sort of essentially unpredictable events that can deliver a blow the the econ, draw the nation into full military status, & transform daily life in the US

	IN SOME WAYS, THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE, EMBEDDED IN THE WORLD'S INSTITL STRUCTURE & IN THE DYNAMICS OF ITS POPULATION
	In envisioning any future scenario, any issues or topics, including: the internet, pop, the env, soc mvmts, & more, will all interact in unique ways to impact any future scenario
	New & emerging technologies that are likely to have a large impact in reshaping any society including: advanced transportation, biotechnology, materials technology, info tech esp artificial intelligence (AI), war, & others
	The changes involved in shaping future societies will inevitably bring some critical issues, conflicts, & threats, including issue that center on cultural dissonance & sustainability

	THERE ARE MANY CATEGORIES OF FUTURE SCENARIOS, SUCH AS: OPTIMISTIC, MIDDLING, PESSIMISTIC, FRAMEWORK, SHORT TERM, MID TERM, LONG TERM, & MORE
	There are many visionary scenarios, but broadly speaking, futurists' projections can be divided into 3 kinds: optimistic, middling, & pessimistic
	Optimistic futurists stress the potential for tech innovations to discover & harness new resources, to provide faster & more effective means to transportation & communication, & to make possible new ways of living
	The optimistic futurist is often characterized by science fiction cities of mile high skyscrapers & spaceship style living pods, by bioecological harmony, & by unprecedented social & cultural progress through the info hwys of cyberspace
	Optimistic futurists projects a world that will be stabilized & homogenized by supranational govts, world govts, or even multi world govts
	Pessimistic futurists stress the finite nature of Earth's resources, the fragility of its env, & the pop growth rates that exceed the capacity of peripheral regions to sustain them
	Pessimistic futurists emphasize the probability of a sharp polarization btwn the haves & the have nots at every scale
	Doomsday forecasting is characterized by scenarios that include irretrievable env degradation, increasing soc & econ polarization, the breakdown of law & order, widespread violent conflicts & war, & more
	The middling futurists often recognize some, but not all of the pts made by the optimists & the pessimists, offering analysis about why particular possibilities may or may not manifest
	For the middling futurist, history has shown that few of the major predictions of world changing tech or human harmony have come true as seen in the failure to develop unlimited clean energy, or transportation, or the lack of human like computers or robots
	The middling futurist recognizes that other tech & human relationships unforeseen by any have become common, such as mass jet flight, smart phones, the internet, TV, & more
	For the middling futurist, history has shown that few of the major doomsday scenarios have come to be, including the population bomb, crashing tech, global war, env collapse, & more
	Thus for the middling futurist, new favorable situations do & will arise, but they are rarely as important as people imagine, & dire scenarios do present themselves, but to date people / societies have always found ways to mitigate them
	The middling futurists critique of the optimist & pessimist futurists is that whatever scenarios arise, people will adjust to them
	Future events happen in a context of humans & human societies that are adaptive to change
	Changes does not happen to people & societies; change happens with & in people & societies
	Middling futurists recognize that events may overwhelm people & societies, but to date, to the credit of the resilience of humanity, it has not happened

	A USEFUL RANGE OF SCENARIOS MIGHT INCLUDE: THE CONVENTIONAL WORLD, REFERENCE, BALANCED GROWTH, BARBARISM, SOCIAL BREAKDOWN, FORTRESS WORLD, GREAT TRANSITIONS, GLOBAL GOV, & NEW SUSTAINABILITY SCENARIOS
.	Possible framework level scenarios include: The Global Scenario Grp, Stockhholm Env Insit posits 6 scenarios, 2 for each of 3 types of conventional world, barbarism, & great transitions
	Conventional World Scenarios envision a world in which development is governed by gradual & steady ind growth
	Reference Scenarios assume that most of the world's regional econs will open & that unreg mkts will expand
	Balanced Growth Scenarios see the implementation of policy reforms that guide econ growth & sustain the env
	Barbarism scenarios are characterized by: persistent poverty, pop pressure, resource shortages, disastrous env problems, & more, all which lead to localized armed conflicts & violence in peripheral regions, as well as by: rising unemployment, depressions, political instability, outbreaks of civil disorder, & more in core regions
	Social Breakdown Scenarios see chaos & random violence diverting significant levels of resources from econ growth to security
	Fortress World Scenarios result from the core regions recognizing that the crisis that is mounting & so create alliances among themselves to protect their own interests
	Dark Ages are predicted by some observers for the US b/c individual & institutional morality is in decline
	Great Transitions Scenarios see the world's regions evolve to a higher stage
	Global Governance Scenarios find individuals, instits, & states restrict certain activities & undertake others for the common global good
	New Sustainability Scenarios see an increase in tech & econ growth which are constrained in the core & dominated by transnat corps

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Outline on Middling Scenarios

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WHILE THERE ARE CLEAR THREATS IN THE FUTURE, MIDDLING SCENARIOS NOTE THAT THE SOLUTIONS LIE IN THE REALM OF HUMAN POSSIBILITIES; OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FUTURE WILL BE CAPITALIZED ON, BUT WORLD CHANGING TECH OR OTHER EVENTS HAVE NEVER OCCURRED; THOSE THAT DO, DEVELOP OVER DECADES OR LONGER

Perhaps better than other scenarios, the middling scenario demonstrates that soc sci cannot simply project our future from the past

Middling scenarios are not simply an average of the pessimistic view & the optimistic view

Middling scenarios try to assemble the best, reasonable estimation of a reasonable outcome, given past trends & social sciences understanding of how conditions will change in the future

Middling scenarios are more likely to embrace the fact that, on the pessimistic side, humanity will adapt to negative forces & negative events so as to not be overcome by them

For example, pop experts have predicted disaster b/c of overpop for decades, ie since the days of Malthus

Today we see that pop increases are being moderated as societies mature economically, & develop a mid class, which does not value large families

Today, over optimism is less of a problem in most scenarios; in the past many soc scientists foresaw the possibility that 'utopia' was possible

The utopias of the both the dreamers & the social scientists of the 1800s were not perfect world's, rather they often represented an appeal for a lifestyle that would result in a significantly better world w/o, for example, poverty, or crime, or war, or inequality, & so on

Fundamentally the early optimism of the modern age ended w/ the historical woes of: the Great War, aka the War to End All Wars, aka WW 1, the Great Depression, WW 2, the Holocaust, the atom bomb, & the Cold War

Those of the middling opinion note several rational improvements in human systems, including: the decline in the use of the death penalty, the decline in the number of violent deaths as the result of crime or war, the decline of major depressions b/c of Fed Res Bank policies & fiscal policy (exception, the Bush recession beginning in 2007), the end of the Cold War, the decrease in the number of WMD, & more

Those of the middling opinion note several threats facing humanity today are, or soon will be under control or solved, including: war in the Mid East, terrorism in general, war w/ Russia in the Ukraine, the population explosion, & more

Extremists in the Mid East, & terrorists around the world, will not threaten our world order, even if they acquire a WMD, or several, b/c they have traditional society models which cannot compete w/ the values & the value offered by modernity from freedom to plenty

War w/ Russia is highly unlikely for the same reasons war was averted during the Cold War: both sides recognize there would be no winners since nuclear weapons ensure mutually assured destruction, signified by the appropriate acronym of the 60s: MAD

The pop explosion & poverty are far from solved, but the world is making significant progress, & knows how to continue to make progress

Those of the middling opinion note several threats facing humanity in the future: climate change, unemployment as a result of artificial intelligence (AI) & robotics, epidemics, bio engineering, AI & robotics in & of itself, & more, which have their unique properties which make them unique problems for the future

Climate change still has its deniers, & even leaders in the most forward leaning nations including all the developed democracies have as yet failed to make real progress & have yet to formulate realistic strategies

The problem of climate change will ensue over the next 50 yrs, & by then it may well take hundreds of yrs to reverse the damage done so the question is, can humanity be more forward looking than it ever has in history?

Unemployment as a result of technology has been a perennial problem since the advent of the industrial revolution & while pessimists from the 'saboteurs' to the Labor Mvmt, to the Chamber of Commerce have predicted the downfall of the modern econ b/c of technology, that downfall has not yet happened

At present, it takes more highly trained wkrs to produce more developed technology

The technology of AI & robotics will reach a tipping pt where AI & the robots themselves will be able to design & produce better AI & robots w/ less & less human input, until at some pt, they will be able to improve themselves, by themselves

Some social scientists call the pt where AI & robots become self sustaining, self improving, the pt of singularity

At this pt of technological singularity, the value of human labor will plummet & it is not clear how to address this drop

Since Mendel (1822-1884) laid the foundation for our understanding of genetics, many people have speculated on the possibility of breeding or engineering a superior human race

While international conventions & laws have prohibited human engineering, in 2015 England made it legal for a fetus to be created from the genetic material of 3 different humans, demonstrating the that there is, at the least, a slide toward human engineering

Human bio engineering presents the threat of humans becoming second class citizens to a class of bio engineered superior humans

Besides the risk of unemployment, AI & robotics presents the threat of humans becoming second class citizens to machines

While any one of these threats presents a high level of risk, those of the middling opinion note that the solutions lie completely w/in the realm of possible of human capability; the challenge is to find the leadership & the will to address these threats

	WHILE AT THE MACRO SOCIETAL LEVEL THERE ARE FEW MANIFESTATIONS OF PESSIMISTIC OR OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOS, MIDDLING SCENARIOS ARE OFTEN DEMONSTRATED IN HISTORY
	We can now see that a fairly coherent period of economic & geopolitical development occurred btwn WW 1, beginning in the early 1900s & the collapse of the SU in 1989, circa the end of the 1900s
	Some refer to the period btwn WW 1 & the collapse of the SU as the 'short 20th C'
	During the short 20th C, the modern world sys developed its triadic core of the US, W Euro, & Japan
	Geopolitics is based on an East West divide, & geoecon is based on a North South divide
	Specific places & regions w/in the larger geopol & geoecon sys were shaped by the needs & opportunities of the tech sys that were based on the internal combustion engine, oil & plastics, electrical engineering, aerospace ind, electronics, & more
	In the short 20th C, the modern world sys was estb, along w/ its ind landscapes of the core to the unintended metropolises of the periphery, from voting blocs of the West to the newly independent nation states of the South

	HUMANITY IS IN TRANSITION FROM A POST WW 2, COLD WAR ERA TO ONE OF BRINGING 2/3s OF THE GLOBE TO MODERNITY; THERE IS IDEOLOGICAL & VIOLENT RESISTANCE TO MODERNITY
	Traditional structures, cultures, processes, & dynamics of the pre modern era are fading away, & some of the structures, cultures, processes, & dynamics of the short 20th C are disappearing
	Many societies around the world are in a period of transition, triggered by the end of the Cold War in 1989 & rendered more complex by the geopol & cultural repercussions of the terrorist attacks of Sept 11, 2001
	The result of the current period of transition is a series of unexpected developments & unsettling juxtapositions
	Examples of the dynamics of the current transition period include: - the US has given aid to Russia - E Euro nations have joined NATO & the EU - Germany has unified - Czechoslovakia & Yugoslavia have disintegrated - So Africa has been transformed through an unexpectedly peaceful revolution, to black majority rule
	Terrorists who distort Islam for their own use attack everyone from local grps to core nations military & econ centers
	Ultra nationalists are demanding independence from Russian provinces such as Chechnia to regions in Spain
	The US & coalitions partners have invaded 1st Afghanistan, then Iraq, then surged in Iraq & Afghanistan, then pulled out of Iraq, then re entered Iraq, & then carried out a slow pull out in Afghanistan

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Outline on Globalization & the Future

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GLOBALIZATION OF ALL HUMAN SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE, INCREASE IN RAPIDITY, SPREAD ACROSS THE GLOBAL, & CONNECT ALL INDIVIDUALS, & ALL SOCIAL SYS FROM CULTURE TO ECONS & SO ON

The exact nature of the forces of globalization in the near term will be determined by the histl forces of the past unfolding into the future modified by individual's & system's initiatives

Under some scenarios globalization may stall or even reverse itself, but most experts expect globalization to continue

It is necessary in constructing a future vision of any situation to get a sense of how different aspects of globalization are changing the world

Globalization of the capitalist world sys involves processes that have been occurring for at least 500 yrs, but since WW 2, world integration & transformation has been remarkably accelerated & dramatic

The forces driving integration & transformation include the strengthening of regional alliances such as the EU & the OPEC nations

Regional alliances are connecting the most remote regions of the world due to telecommunications & transportation linkages, the emergence of the new econ in the core nations, the rise of global instits like the WTO, & consumers simply becoming accustomed to, expecting, that the world is their shopping mkt

The forces of global connectivity, & the popular reactions to them, changed the fates & fortunes of world regions whose current coherence owes more to 18th & 19th C Euro colonialism than to the forces of integration or disintegration in the 21st C

The most certain features of globalization of the future are that globalization will: increase, occur more rapidly, reach all corners of the globe, & increase the inter connectivity & dependence of all people & systems

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Outline on Future Shock
by Alvin Toffler

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FUTURE SHOCK IS THE EXPERIENCE OF ALIENATION & STRESS AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID CHANGES, EXPERIENCED PERSONALLY & AT A SOCIETAL LEVEL

Future Shock is a book written by the futurist Alvin Toffler in 1970

Future shock as a psychological state of individuals & entire societies resulting from too much change in too short a period of time

Toffler argued that society is undergoing an enormous structural change, a revolution from an industrial society to a 'super industrial society'

Change from one type of major society to another can overwhelm people, orgs, institutions, societies, & more

Other soc scientists, esp Durkheim, have focused on the alienation that results as societies develop

Toffler believed the accelerated rate of tech & social change left people disconnected & suffering from shattering stress & disorientation', ie future shocked

Toffler stated that the majority of social problems are symptoms of future shock

In his discussion of the components of future shock, Toffler popularized the term 'information overload'

Toffler's analysis of the phenomenon of information overload is continued in his later publications, especially The Third Wave & Powershift

Conscientious objections, Neil Postman & Charles Weingartner delivered an address to the National Council of Teachers of English where they used the phrase 'future shock' as a way of describing the social paralysis induced by rapid tech change

Toffler developed the concept of future shock further noting that its causes include: tech change, the transformation of the econ, changes in personal relationships,

	SOCIETY HAS EXPERIENCED FUTURE SHOCKS AT IT TRANSITIONED FROM AG SOCIETY TO IND SOCIETY TO POST IND SOCIETY
	Toffler distinguished 3 stages in development of society & production: agrarian, industrial & post industrial
	The ag stage began in the period of the Neolithic Era when people invented ag, thereby passing from barbarity to a civilization
	The industrial stage began in England w/ the Industrial Rev during which people invented the machine tool & the steam engine
	The post ind stage began in the 2nd half of the 20th C in the West when people invented automatic production, robotics, telecommunications, & the computer
	Toffler proposed that the difference btwn ind society & post ind society: is the share of the population occupied in ag vs the share of city labor occupied in the services sector
	In a post ind society, the share of the people occupied in ag does not exceed 15 %, & the share of city laborers occupied in the services sector exceeds 50 %
	The share of the people occupied w/ brainwork greatly exceeds the share of the people occupied w/ physical work in post ind society

	FUTURE SHOCK IS EXPERIENCED IN EVERYDAY LIVES & WITNESSED VIA THE MEDIA & EDUCATION IN THE ENTIRE WORLD
	For Toffler, modern people feel shocked as a result of rapid changes in their everyday lives & viewing others experience rapid change
	The urban population doubles every 11 yrs
	The overall production of goods & services doubles each 50 yrs in developed countries
	Society experiences an increasing number of changes w/ an increasing rapidity, while people are losing the familiarity that the old institutions of religion, family, national identity, profession, & more once provided
	The so called 'brain drain' which occurred after WW 2 w/ the emigration of Euro scientists to the US, is both an indicator of the changes in society & also one of their causes

	TOFFLER UNCOVERED MANY CHANGES WHICH HE EXPECTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FUTURE INCLUDING: DISPOSABLE GOODS, DISPOSABLE ENGINEERING, THE SHARE OR RENTAL SOCIETY, SUNSET & SUNRISE INDUSTRIES, DISPLACED WKRS, MULTIPLE CAREERS, TRANSIENT RELATIONSHIPS, & MORE
	Today & in the future, many goods have become disposable as the cost of manual repair or cleaning has become greater than the cost of making new goods due to mass production
	Examples of disposable goods include ball point pens, lighters, plastic bottles, & rockets
	In the ag societies & early industrial societies, there were no disposable goods b/c everything was used up, repaired, re used, or recycled
	An important change in post ind society is that the design of goods becomes outdated quickly
	A new generation of computers appears before the end of the expected period of usability of the last generation
	Today & in the future, it is possible to rent or share almost everything from a ladder to a wedding dress, thus eliminating the need for ownership
	Today & in the future, whole branches of industry die off & new branches of industry arise
	Wkrs skilled in old industries are compelled to retrain, & often to change their residence to find new jobs
	The constant change in the mkt also poses a problem for advertisers who must deal w/ moving targets
	People of post ind society change their profession & their wkplace often b/c professions quickly become outdated
	People of post ind society have many careers in a lifetime
	The knowledge of an engineer becomes outdated in 10 yrs
	Today & in the future, more & more people look for & take temporary jobs, some having temp positions for their entire careers
	Today & in the future, to follow transient jobs, people have become nomads, & thus personal relationships become more transient
	In the past, a person in a village might: intimately know the 500 people in the village their entire life, witness the births of the village's new young ones, witness the deaths of the village's elderly, & only meet a few travelers, as strangers, who pass through
	Today & in the future, b/c of the temp job mkt & plentiful transportation, a person in a town or city might have a dozen or so family & friends they know intimately, & meet hundreds or thousands of people who remain mere acquaintances or strangers
	Today & in the future, even the dozen or so intimate family & friends that a person has changes every time that person relocates
	Transient people are forced to change residence, phone number, school, friends, car license, & contact w/ family often
	B/c of the change of professions & the necessity of the nomadic lifestyle to find wk, relationships tend to be superficial w/ a large number of people, instead of being intimate or close relationships that are more stable
	The driver's license, received at age 16, has become the teenager's admission to the world of adults, b/c it symbolizes the ability to move independently
	Today & in the future, people will migrate around the globe in increasing numbers to find work, avoid war & conflict, escape env degradation, & for freedom
	Immigrants from Algeria, Turkey & other countries go to Euro to find wk, immigrants from central & South American go to No Am to find wk, etc

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Outline on US Industrial Relations System:
An International Perspective

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THE LABOR MVMT WILL WORK TO ESTB MORE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIONS W/ LABOR MVMTS AROUND THE GLOBE IN THE FUTURE

When considering the future of the US ind rel sys, it is necessary to review the status of the US lab mvmt from an intl perspective

The steady decline in union membership in the US is not unique; other nations have also had a decline in union membership, though some have gained

Throughout the 70s & 80s, the US had low union membership compared to other nations

In the 80s, the US had the smallest % of its work force unionized of any nation

Unions in the US & Japan are the only nations experiencing continuous membership losses since 1970, though union membership in Japan dropped by a smaller % than in the US

Unionization has dropped in the US relative to other nations b/c of the greater mgt resistance to unionization in this nation

The reason for the resistance can be attributed to high union wages in the US

The more successful unions are in increasing wages of their members, the greater the incentive for mgt to oppose unionization

Unions are confronted w/ a paradox: the more successful they are in achieving their traditional goals of increasing wages & benefits, the more likely they are to experience mgt resistance resulting in decreases in membership strength

In nations w/ increasing union membership, the labor mvmt grew public sector membership during periods of decline in membership in the private sector

Most of the trends responsible for the decreasing intl private sector unionization totals are explained by structural changes in econs, ie they shift from goods to service production

The shift in econ sys from goods to service production reduces the number of union members in the traditionally heavily unionized mfr sector

Post ind econs experiences shifts from goods to service production

US membership declines are severe b/c a larger % of the US wk force as compared to other nations is employed in the private sector where union membership is tied to the declining mfr sector

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Outline on the Future Directions for Labor Relations

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UNIONS UNDER THE STRESS OF GLOBAL COMPETITION & MGTS' ANTI UNION POLICIES PUT THE FUTURE OF THE LABOR MVMT IN DOUBT

Today the US labor relations sys is under stress from many angles & perspectives

Proponents of free mkts & human resource mgt see unions as interfering w/ mkts & mgrs

Advocates of employment relationship flexibility criticize union policies as restrictive barriers to competitiveness

Proponents of greater labor mgt coop & wkr involvement attack US labor law as adversarial & overly restrictive

Globalization & the need to create hi performance wkplaces are placing strains on the US labor relations sys

The current state of US labor relations is criticized by proponents of labor unions & wkrs' rts

Mgt's drive for flexibility & team based wk sys are sometimes simply old fashioned speedups in which wkrs are forced to wk harder for lower pay & less security

Organized labor believes that US labor law is exceptionally weak & fails to prevent antiunion firm actions firing union supporters or replacing striking wkrs

Labor activists criticize the trad business unionism approach of US unions for failing to develop a vibrant labor mvmt based on grassroots participation

Criticisms of the labor mvmt reflect frustration w/ the current state of efficiency, equity, safety, & voice in the US employment relationship

	INTERNATIONALLY SPEAKING, THERE ARE MANY STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES AVAILABLE
	Comparative examples from other nations show that there are many institl arrangements & behaviors for seeking the common underlying goal of balancing efficiency, safety, equity & voice
	If the US sys no longer effectively serves its purposes, there are alternatives
	Labor unions have a variety of options such as: becoming either more militant or cooperative, changing their structures & strats, seeking new employment sectors to organize, focusing on new issues, involving wkrs more in union goals, & more
	Firms too, have a variety of options including: a continued short term focus on shareholder returns, broader strats based on weakening labor, substituting tech for labor, moving production to non labor geog areas, & more

	THE LABOR MVMT MUST RESPOND TO CHANGING WKR DEMOGRAPHICS & THE CHANGING GLOBAL, INFO AGE ECON
	The labor mvmt represents wkrs & champions the interests & aspirations of wkrs, not vice versa
	The labor mvmt does not determine wkrs' aspirations, but rather must shape their strats & strucs to respond to them
	The early AFL craft unions, the CIO industrial unions in the 30s, & the public sector unions in the 60s created strats & strucs to fit the evolving needs of skilled crafts wkrs, mass mfr wkrs, & govt wkrs, respectively
	As wkplace relations change is response to the pressure e of globalization, flexibility, & decentralization, as the nature of wk changes in response to new wkforce demographics, eg ethnicity, gender & ed, & increased wkr involvement, & as the US econ experiences shifts in ind & occupations, wkrs in the 21st C will create a new sense of wkplace justice different from earlier eras

	ALT UNION DIRECTIONS
	There are numerous alt directions for the US labor mvmt
	The alt directions unions include trying to: become more powerful become more cooperative emphasize greater social activism emphasize greater individual empowerment network like a professional assoc purchase firms & become owners
	The categories for alt directions of unions are broad & must be made more specific in relation to local circumstances
	The categories for alt directions of unions are not mutually exclusive, & some are complementary
	It is common to argue that reviving the labor mvmt requires discarding the servicing model by actively engaging individual wkrs
	One size does not fit all; the varieties of wkrs, firms, industries, & occupations require diverse forms of unionism
	Some alts are consistent w/ existing labor law, whereas others require legal changes
Link	The Table on Possibilities for 21st Century Labor Unions demonstrates that the various possibilities of: solidarity, soc mvmts, efficiency enhancing, empl ownership, empl empowerment, & assoc unionism emphasize the opportunities of: wkr advocacy, political activism, participatory structures, control / ownership, wkr empowerment, & networks of rep, respectively

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Table on Possibilities for 21st Century Labor Unions

Possibilities

Unions As...

Emphases

Concerns

Solidarity unionism

Powerful solidarity alliances

Strong wkr advocacy in the wkplace through bargaining backed up by strikes, & solidarity across wkplaces

More adversarial than cooperative, more rules based than flexible. How to achieve competitiveness & qual?

Social Mvmt Unionism

Community & political activists

Social & political militancy & activism, alliances w/ community grps

What about wkrs wkplace concerns?

Efficiency enhancing unionism

Productivity & cooperation enhancers

Concern w/ estb participatory structures to serve competitiveness & qual. Rewards based on performance, training initiatives

What is the source of wkr power? Is there solidarity across wkplaces? Who's looking out for employee interests?

Employee ownership unionism

Employee owners

Control over employment conditions through employee ownership of companies

Is employee ownership efficient? How are business decisions made? Is it to risky for wkrs when their savings are invested in their company?

Employee empowerment unionism

Individual empowerment supporters

Bargaining for procedures that empower individual decision making inclusion of procedural safeguards & min standards

What is the source of wkr power? Is there solidarity across wkplaces?

Associational unionism

Loose networks of professional assoc

Flexible mult forms of representation & networks based on mult concerns. More than just bargaining. No exclusive rep

What is the source of wkr power?

The Table on Possibilities for 21st Century Labor Unions demonstrates that the various possibilities of: solidarity, soc mvmts, efficiency enhancing, empl ownership, empl empowerment, & assoc unionism emphasize the opportunities of: wkr advocacy, political activism, participatory structures, control / ownership, wkr empowerment, & networks of rep, respectively

	THE CRITICAL DIMENSIONS OF THE EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP ARE EFFICIENCY, EQUITY, & VOICE
	There are pros & cons for each of the possibilities for 21st C unionism
	The possibilities for 21st C unionism can be analyzed against the critical dimensions of the employment relationship: efficiency, equity, & voice
	Efficiency is emphasized most strongly by efficiency enhancing unionism, but employee ownership unionism also promotes efficiency if stock ownership motivates employees or if social investing produces stable firms w/ hi performance employment sys
	The flexibility & individual discretion aspects of wkr empowerment unionism & assoc unionism can be consistent w/ increased competitiveness
	Equity is stressed most sharply in solidarity unionism & soc mvmt unionism & is pursued through strong barg & social power
	Employee empowerment unionism seeks equity through min standards & procedural safeguards
	Social voice is an important feature of soc mvmt unionism, while wkplace voice is delivered in alt ways in some of the other models
	Employee ownership unionism provides wkplace voice through participation in corp govt, while employee empowerment & assoc unionism emphasize a combination of individual & col voice mechanisms

	THE LABOR MVMT HAS TO MOVE AHEAD, RECOGNIZING THAT IT IS NEGOTIATING FROM A POSITION OF WEAKNESS
	Discussions of the future cannot ignore the weak state of the US labor mvmt
	It is uncertain as to how weak unions can successfully pursue more cooperative strats such as efficiency enhancing or employee empowerment unionism
	Cooperative behavior from a position of weakness promotes efficiency, but it is unlikely to revive the labor mvmt or make positive contributions to equity & voice
	Weak unions that feel that their existence is threatened might turn to militant, adversarial strats to increase their power
	The extent to which unions are institutionally secure in the econ, pol & soc sys of the 21st C can shape in which direction US unions move
	Whether unions are secure or threatened depends not only on choices that the labor mvmt must make, but also on corp behavior & public policies

	LINKS TO POSSIBLE LABOR MVMT STRATS
Link	Solidarity Unionism
Link	Soc Mvmt Unionism
Link	Efficiency Enhancing Unionism
Link	Employee Ownership Unionism
Link	Employee Empowerment Unionism
Link	Associational Unionism

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Outline on Solidarity Unionism

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SOLIDARITY UNIONISM FOCUSES ON TRADITIONAL BARGAINING POWER THROUGH SOLIDARITY W/IN & ACROSS WKPLACES

Solidarity is the closest to the existing model of business unionism

Solidarity unionism champions a strong labor mvmt as the protector of wkr interests in opposition to mgt

Unions are seen as a needed force of wkr power & protection

The problem w/ the current weakness of unions is not that most wkrs have no rep to develop & express their views on bus strats & tactics, or the personnel policies & benefits chosen by the firm, the problem is that wkrs have lost power

From the solidarity unionist pt of view, wkrs have lost the power to extract a larger share of returns of enterprise & power to protect individual wkrs from oppressive, arbitrary, unjust, or discriminatory treatment by their mgrs

	FROM THE SOLIDARITY UNIONIST PT OF VIEW, THE SOLUTION TO THE DECLINE OF THE LABOR MVMT IS TO MOBILIZE WKRS
	Immigrant wkrs who are segregated into ethnic enclaves in the wkplaces & communities develop strong collective bonds through their shared struggles & are rip for unionization efforts that build on this solidarity
	The strategy to regain labor power involves using more aggressive organizing & bargaining tactics
	Grad teaching assistants at Yale refused to hand in grades, ie a grade strike, & later conducted a conventional strike to try to pressure Yale to recognize their unions
	Other unions are also trying to organized outside the NLRB election process
	Corporate campaigns, ie soc & financial pressure on firms through adverse publicity, involve non trad tactics that labor can use to increase its power
	During a strike against the Ravenswood Aluminum Co in the 90s, the United Steel Wkrs pressured beverage firms to stop buying Ravenswood aluminum for cans, filed charges of safety violations w/ OSHA & publicized the shady deal making practices of the firm's secretive owner throughout Euro
	Many of these tactics include developing greater solidarity linkages w/ other wkrs
	The solidarity tactic focuses on harnessing an organizing model of representation among wkrs who feel committed to the success of all / others
	In contrast to the servicing model, a solidarity centered organizing model seeks to create widespread rank & file participation in union activities
	Increasing internal union democracy based on solidarity creates a vibrant & powerful labor mvmt through rank & file involvement
	Non majority unions are unions that have the support of a minority rather than a majority of wkrs in a wkplace
	Non majority unions are encouraged to negotiate members only agreements by bargaining on behalf of their supporters in wkplaces where majority support has not yet been achieved, showing solidarity w/ wkrs who are not even in the union
	Non majority unions can gain a foot hold in new wkplaces, demonstrate to reluctant wkrs the benefits of unionism, & ultimately achieve majority support by estbing solidarity w/ non union wkrs

	SOLIDARITY UNIONISM CALLS FOR MOVING BEYOND INDUSTRIAL UNIONS TO OCCUPATIONAL UNIONISM REPRESENTING A PARTIAL RETURN TO EARLIER FORMS OF CRAFT UNIONISM
	Some proposals for increasing labor's power suggest altering the structure of unions
	Unions need to reduce their bureaucracy & avoid trad jurisdictional conflicts as outsourcing & other labor mkt changes make work more fluid & drive work into informal sectors of the econ
	Unions need to be willing to lend financial & instit support to diverse grassroots orgs while promoting their autonomy
	Waitresses, flight attendants, & janitors, for example, have strong occupational interests that are tied more to their occupation than to other wkrs in their industry
	Occupational or craft based unions are well suited to the contemporary wkplace b/c the increased use of contingent wkrs & increased job switching continue, but these structures of unions Need to estb more solidarity / cooperation among these diverse units

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Outline on Social Movement Unionism

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SOCIAL MVMT UNIONISM SEES LABOR UNIONS AS REPS OF THE ENTIRE WKING CLASS & AS PART OF A BROADER SOC MVMT OF COMMUNITY, RELIGIOUS, SOCIAL & POL ACTIVIST GRPS

Soc mvmt unions rejects the narrow bus unionism focus on wkplace based col bargaining

Soc mvmt unionism wins gains for wkrs through soc & pol channels rather than only through narrow wkplace bargaining & it is frequently assoc w/ soc democratic labor mvmts in Euro

Soc mvmt unionism is a key element of efforts to create forms of solidarity unionism in the US, thereby strengthening union barg pwr

Advocates of a stronger US lab mvmt see soc activism as one route to more pwr in society & at the barg table

Efforts to increase grassroots participation & mobilization can serve both soc mvmt unionism & solidarity unionism

	THE JUSTICE FOR JANITORS CAMPAIGNS ARE AN EXAMPLE OF IMPLEMENTING COMMUNITY ACTIVISM & UNION ALLIANCES W/ COMMUNITY, RELIGIOUS, SOC, & POL GRPS TO INCREASE LABOR'S EFFECTIVENESS
	These campaigns expand the drive to organize janitors from a wkplace issue to a community issue
	Public demonstrations, strong ties w/ immigrants' rights & religious grps, & active participation by janitors, not just union leaders, give these campaigns soc vibrancy & have won barg rts & contracts
	During a campaign in Wash DC, SEIU led demonstrations that blocked traffic, marched through city streets, & picketed various locations
	SEIU & supporters did not simply demand better wages, the campaign highlighted the soc issues revealed by the janitors' conditions
	A tactic of the Justice for Janitors Campaign was to contrast the low pay & sexual harassment of janitors w/ the massive tax breaks granted to the property owners & the resulting decline in school funding & other city services
	The Justice for Janitors campaigns reject a narrow business unionism approach & try instead to created a broad social mvmt in which organized labor champions wkrs' issues in their social context beyond the confines of individual wkplaces

	SOC MVMT UNIONISM REACHES OUT & INVOLVES WKRS NOT TRADITIONALLY ORGANIZED BY THE LABOR MVMT
	Cesar Chavez & the UFW in the 60s created a soc mvmt, La Causa, by tightly linking organizing of CA field wkrs w/ religious grps & community activists through nationwide grape & lettuce boycotts
	Labor-religious alliances btwn unions & the Chicago Catholic archdiocese & an interdenominational committee helped organize O'Hare Airport concession wkrs
	Soc mvmt unionism initiatives underscore an important aspect of creating a vibrant, socially focused labor mvmt: unions embracing diversity by reaching out to wkrs not traditionally included in the labor mvmt, esp in leadership positions, including: lower level service wkrs, women, minorities, & immigrant wkrs

	SOC MVMT UNIONISM FOCUSES ON WKRS IN A GEOG AREA & USES A NUMBER OF NON TRAD TACTICS TO ASSIST & ORGANIZE WKRS
	The emphasis on community is echoed in calls for citizen unionism
	Instead of the occupational focus of craft unions or the industry focus of ind unions, a citizen union has a geographical focus & seeks to organize all employees in a specific geographical area
	Bargaining, public pressure such as negative publicity, boycotts, & political pwr are used to ensure that firms in an area are good employers & social citizens
	W/ a geog focus, citizen unions can also provide portable benefits & other services such as support for ed, training, child care, & legal assistance to help contingent wkrs & other frequent job changers
	A union that includes all wkrs in a locality regardless of occupation or industry could also be a strong advocate for community issues by reconceptualizing wkrs as citizens who collectively have an interest in the health, education, well being, & employability of the entire population, labor issues become issues of general, community wide concern

	A SIGNIFICANT TACTIC OF SOC MVMT UNIONISM IS TO SYSTEMATICALLY ENGAGE IN US POLITICS AT THE GRASSROOTS, LEGISLATIVE, & EXECUTIVE LEVELS
	On a national scale, another significant aspect of increased labor activism is reasserting influence in national US politics
	Labor's influence w/ the Democratic Party fell to an all time low in the 70s; since then the AFL CIO & individual unions have devoted renewed attn to pol activities
	After John Sweeney became president of the AFL CIO in 95, organized labor focused on creating a vibrant grassroots effort that involves many rank & file wkrs in campaigning for pro labor pol candidates & in get out the vote efforts
	Org lab continues to face a hostile pol env & while it is most evident under Rep admins of Reagan, Bush Sr, & Bush Jr, org lab no major changes to the soc pol env occurred during the Dem admins of Clinton or Obama
	Therefore, some labor supporter have called for the creation of an independent labor party as an addl component of soc mvmt unionism strat

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Outline on Efficiency Enhancing Unionism (EEU)

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EFFICIENCY ENHANCING UNIONISM (EEU) USES AN ENTERPRISE COMPACT INSTEAD OF A CONTRACT, & SEEKS TO ENHANCE COOPERATION BTWN LABOR & MGT, INSTEAD OF ADVERSARIALISM, IN ORDER TO HELP THE FIRM, & THUS WKRS SUCCEED

Solidarity unionism & social mvmt unionism include diverse initiatives or proposals that can generally be thought of as militant or activist & embody a strong need to represent wkrs' interests in opposition to firms' interests

Efficiency enhancing unionism (EEU) & other alternative see new forms of unionism that are not as adversarial or oppositional

In the view of some unionists, these alt are more productive, while others see them as weak

EEU is non oppositional & cooperative

EEU sees labor unions as strategic business partners that can help advance productivity, quality, & competitiveness

One proposal for implementing EEU is to replace the typical detailed union contract w/ an enterprise contract

A contract is adversarial in nature, representing a compromise btwn the separate interests of each part to the agreement

A compact is a cooperative document, providing for mutual vision & a joint sys for achieving common goals that foster the general well being of all stakeholders in a give endeavor

An enterprise compact specific the principles of a labor mgt relationship based on union & wkr involvement in business dec mking in return for greater union commitment to competitiveness, as well as increased sharing by wkrs in both the risks & rewards of the firm

Examples of a principles for an enterprise compact would include: productivity growth targets & prices estb jointly by labor & mgt, guaranteed job security, base compensation estb by productivity growth w/ added profit sharing, & the replacement of mgt rts clauses w/ joint dec mking

The union & mgrs at Saturn used to jointly make strategic dec & teams of wkrs were empowered to make daily production & wk decisions

Supporters of EEU view cooperation as a way to serve the firm's interests of competitiveness & qual while providing a richer, positive wk env for wkrs

Critics of EEU view cooperation as selling out & leaving wkrs w/o protections against mgt

	EEUs OFTEN ACHIEVE EFFICIENCY BY CO SPONSORING & CO OPERATING TRAINING PROGRAMS
	Another type of EEU is through active union involvement in providing training
	The Wisconsin State AFL CIO has wked w/ mgt to estb & running the Wisc Regional Training Partnership (WRTP)
	THe WRTP cooperated w/ both private firms & public orgs & tech colleges to provide training across the spectrum of wkforce needs from basic job & language skills to adv tech skills
	Across the nation, unions provide training for hotel, hospital, electrical, child care, & other wkrs
	The cooperative approach can increase wkrs' incomes while providing a more skilled, & therefore more efficient & competitive wkforce to firms

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Outline on Employee Ownership Unionism (EOU)

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EMPLOYEE OWNERSHIP UNIONISM (EOU) CAN FUNCTION THROUGH VARIOUS FORMS OF OWNERSHIP & HAVE INFLUENCE IN MANY MANNERS FROM THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS TO PENSION FUNDS

An important approach to aligning wkrs' & firms' interests is through employee ownership

If wkrs own stock in a firm, they may wk harder to promote the profitability of their firm

If ownership comes w/ voting rts in corp governance or direct representation on a corp board of directors, wkrs can participate in business dec mking at the highest levels of the corp

W/ some or all employee ownership, corps might weigh wkrs' interests, such as job security, more heavily when making strategic decisions

EOU represents wkrs by facilitating wkr ownership of firms

	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLANS (ESOPs) IS AN EMPLOYEE OWNERSHIP METHOD THAT PROVIDES A WKFORCE W/ AN OWNERSHIP INTEREST IN THE COMPANY, THUS GIVING WKRS A GREATER VOICE & MEASURE OF CONTROL
	Examples of union involvement in wkr ownership efforts include employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) in the steel, trucking, airlines, & retail food industries
	ESOPs in the steel, trucking, airlines, & retail food industries have usually occurred when the firms were struggling & involved wkrs trading wage & benefit concessions for stock ownership
	To date, organized labor has participated in ESOPs as a defensive rather than a proactive representation strat
	The difficulty of using wkr ownership to advocate for wkr interest is underscored by the fact that only a tiny minority of ESOPS include wkr representatives on corp board of directors

	PENSION FUND INVESTMENTS, LIKE ANY INVESTMENT, GIVES THE INVESTOR, WHO IN THIS CASE IS A WKR OR WKFORCE, A GREATER VOICE IN CORP GOVERNANCE & MAY GIVE A MEASURE OF CONTROL OVER POLICIES IMPACTING WKRS
	EOU could use pension fund investments to give wkrs a voice
	Wkr pension funds in the US have several trillion dollars invested in stocks, bonds, & other instruments
	Wkr pension funds are labor's capital
	Various efforts are underway to use the power of wkrs' pension fund investments to promote wkrs' interests by creating 'wkr owner' investment objectives that pursue a broader social agenda than simply short term financial gain
	Union pension funds are leading a mvmt of shareholder activism in which wkrs use their rts as shareholders to submit shareholder proposals & resolutions to: limit exec compensation, ensure the independence of outside board members, promote labor & env friendly policies, place safety & job security over profits, & bring about other changes in corp strats & govt
	When pension funds bring proposals to the board, even if they do not pass, they have an effect b/c shareholders are made aware of the issues & vote on them, & the public is made aware of the issues, & both shareholders & the public are likely to put pressure on the firm
	Resolutions can encompass employment practices as well as corp govt issues
	Pension funds can make wkr friendly investments, such as in unionized construction projects
	The use of labor's capital to promote efficiency, equity, & voice is an important labor relations development to watch in the 21st C

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Outline on Employee Empowerment Unionism

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EMPLOYEE EMPOWERMENT UNIONISM SEEKS TO EMPOWER WKRS BY GIVING THEM FLEXIBILITY, W/IN PARTICULAR PARAMETERS, TO NEGOTIATE SALARIES, CONDITIONS, BENEFITS, SAFETY, & MORE, RATHER THAN ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE IT ALL W/IN A CONTRACT

A concern w/ traditional unionism is its emphasis on uniformity & standardization through rules

Not only do tradl labor mgt relations clash w/ managerial drives for flexibility, but it is also reasonable to question whether this is what wkrs want

In employee empowerment unionism, unions negotiate processes rather than outcomes & thus provide the framework for wkr autonomy, discretion, & empowerment

Unlike sys installed unilaterally by firms, negotiated processes can include minimum standards & procedural safeguards ultimately backed up by a strike threat

Unions can provide expertise & support to wkrs as needed

	UNDER EMPLOYEE EMPOWERMENT UNIONISM, UNIONS NEGOTIATE ONLY MINIMUM SALARIES & ESTB PROBLEM SOLVING SYS INSTEAD OF RULES
	In prof sports & the entertainment industry, unions typically only negotiate minimum salaries
	W/in the processes negotiated by the unions, individual players or actors negotiate their own salaries
	The clerical wkrs at Harvard Un negotiated joint committees & problem solving sys instead of rules & a tradl grievance procedure
	For the Harvard clerical wkrs, wkrs are empowered to participate in determining their wking conditions w/in a union negotiated frmwk & w/ the union's support
	Employee empowerment unionism can also be combined w/ efficiency enhancing unionism in wkplaces run by self directed wk teams, as was the case at Saturn

	B/C OF THE LACK OF STANDARDIZATION IN THE ENTERTAINMENT WKPLACE, EMPLOYEE EMPOWERMENT UNIONISM WKS WELL B/C IT PROVIDES MORE FLEXIBILITY FOR INDIVIDUAL JOBS THAN DOES THE STANDARD NEGOTIATED CONTRACT
	In the entertainment industry, col barg agreements for the Screen Actors Gild (SAG), the Am Federation of TV & Radio Artists, the Writers Guild of Am, & Directors Guild of Am contain a set, sometimes complicated minimum rates, the frmwk for individual negotiations, & industry wide standards on residual pmts
	Actors, writers, directors, stage hands, & all types of entertainment wkrs are explicitly allowed to negotiate their own compensation above the negotiated minimums
	The model of setting minimums w/o limits on top salaries is not limited to superstars
	The International Alliance of Theatrical & Stage Employees (IATSE) takes the same approach used for actors for its craft wkrs in the TV & film industry who handle cameras, sound, lighting, & other production aspects
	Through typical col barg, IATSE negotiates basic agreements w/ various assoc of producers such as the Alliance of Motion Picture TV Producers or the Assoc of Independent COmmercial Producers, & w/ production companies, such as Walt Disney or 20th C Fox
	The basic agreements are similar to typical unions contracts & include union recognition & security clauses, benefits, standards for rest & meal periods, overtime provisions, no strike clauses, & a grievance procedure, the critical difference btwn these agreements & a typical union contract is that there are no just cause provisions & the wage rates are minimums
	Individual IATSE members can negotiate higher rates, often referred to as 'better conditions' on their own
	IATSE's col barg agreement is an umbrella that contains & defines the parameters of embedded individual bargains
	Embedded bargaining fits well w/ IATSE's membership b/c of their episodic employment patterns
	Specific jobs, such as making a commercial or a movie, last only a few days or months, so the self representation aspect lets producers, & wkrs tailor wages & hours for each project
	The umbrella col barg agreement provides min standards & continuity of benefits & allows for higher wages & benefits for individuals as negotiated

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Outline on Associational Unionism (AU)

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ASSOCIATIONAL UNIONISM (AU) COMBINES THE DYNAMISM, NIMBLENESS, FLEXIBILITY, & COMPETITIVENESS OF PROF ASSOCs W/ THE TRADL UNION PREROGATIVES OF STRIKING, LOBBYING, POLITICAL PRESSURE, & PUBLICITY

Associational unionism (AU) is rooted in a contrast w/ the postwar model of industrial unionism & US labor law

US business, industrial unionism, US labor law, & the govt's labor policies are premised on a balance of power btwn unions & corps

In a mass mfr econ the balance of power is achieved through rules based contracts & stability is achieved through uniformity of contracts across an industry

Both union representation & production are bureaucratic

Proponents of AU argue that this bureaucratic balance of power no longer matches the need for dynamic, nimble, flexible, & competitive orgs

The tradl sharp distinction btwn labor & mgt no longer matches large numbers of today's tech, semi prof, prof, & knowledge wkrs

Tech, semi prof, prof, & knowledge wkrs have multiple interests: personal, occupational, industry specific, & firm specific & often join prof assoc to serve their interests in a flexible, positive, & non adversarial way, such as through training & estb prof standards

Some prof assoc such as the Society for Human Resource Mgt (SHRM), lack much power in the wkplace, & thus as AU model would have them pursue more power in the wkplace

	AUs ARE MORE POWERFUL THAN AN ASSOC, BUT MORE DECENTRALIZED & FLEXIBLE THAN A UNION, & MORE ABLE TO CONDUCT MULTI LATERAL NEGOTIATIONS
	AU blends the multiple interest phil & services of prof assoc w/ the power of unions to create a new org form that is more powerful than an assoc, but more decentralized & flexible than a typical union
	If AU existed, they could strike, but like a prof assoc they could also use other tactics such as political pressure & publicity
	AUs could also negotiate contracts w/ firms, but b/c of the multiple interest they represent, AU would have to become skilled in multilateral negotiations, not just bilateral negotiations w/ a single firm
	The proposal for AUs is not based on exclusive representation; rather, wkrs can belong to various assoc that reflect their interests & ideals

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Outline on an Intro to Labor Movement Strategies for the Future

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AS UNIONS HAVE DECLINED, THEY FOCUSED LESS ON WAGES & BENEFITS & MORE ON: JOB SECURITY, JOB FLEXIBILITY, WKING CONDITIONS, & GRIEVANCE PROCEDURES

Lowering union demands for wage & benefit increase may reduce mgt's resistance to unionization

During the 80s, unions moderated their demands

Btwn 83 & 90, total compensation increases for nonunion wkrs rose faster than for union members

Increase national & intl competition & its econ implications as well as decreased union bargaining power reduced Labor's pursuit of wage & benefit increases

Unions rather than emphasizing wages in negotiations stress job security, job flexibility, improvements in wking conditions, & better grievance procedures

The restructuring of union bargaining priorities may make unions less threatening to mgt in the future

	UNIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ADOPT MODERN ADMIN METHODS FOR UNION OPERATIONS
	The future of US labor orgs depends on the ability to adapt & respond to tech & product mkt changes
	Until recent yrs most labor orgs have not introduced basic modern mgt methods such as: long range strat planning, comprehensive budgets, recruitment & selection procedures for attracting top qual office & staff personnel, efficient 2 way commo & fdbk sys, & others
	For Dunlop, some labor orgs, including the AFL CIO, respond to new econ & pol envs
	Internal changes w/in corps & external pressures provided an incentive for some unions to study the implications of new realities
	In 1981, the Communications Wkrs of Am (CWA) appointed a 'Committee on the Future' to analyze strat options open to the union, present strat recommendations & propose a plan for structural changes
	The CWA Committee on the Future recommended new initiative in the areas of negotiations & conflict avoidance, organizing, & changes in the op & struc of the union
	The CWA Committee on the Future addressed such areas as the transition implications of moving from the ind to the info age, changes in the wkforce, of wk patterns, & the effect of these changes on the union

	A FEW FORWARD LOOKING UNIONS HAVE ADOPTED NEW, INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES
	The Intl Union of Bricklayers & Allied Craftsmen (BAC) estb the 'Committee on the Yr 2000' to propose a blueprint to guide the union over the next decade to undertake a long range planning effort, an orgl strat
	The BAC Committee on the Yr 2000 recommended changes in organizing processes, membership, structure, admin, & col barg, finding that the union must adopt & implement structural changes that will enable the union to be admin & mged more effectively
	The BAC Committee on the Yr 2000 recommended support for the disputes settlement plan & productivity / qual of work life (QWL) proj of the labor / mgt rel program
	New strat plans have been developed by other unions, but none were as comprehensive as those of the CWA & the BAC

	STRAT PLANS FOR LABOR SHOULD INCLUDE AN: ENV ASSESSMENT, GOALS, STRUCTURE, ACTION PLAN, & A PROCESS FOR INNOVATION
	Their survival & growth of orgs, & the labor unions are no exception, depend on the responses & adaptation of leaders to changing conditions
	Conditions today require the development of longer term strat plans
	For Dunlop, each strat plan, whether for business, govt, academia, or Labor, should contain the elements of: 1. an env assessment, 2. setting goals & priorities, 3. shaping the struc of an org, 4. a plan of action, 5. estbing a process for innovation & change
	1. Strat plans need an env assessment which would include an eval of the extent to which the org can be changed & is ready for change
	2. Strat plans need to set goals & priorities for the org, both for the short term as well as for the long term
	3. Strat plans need to shape the struc of an org to achieve its short & long term goals & priorities
	4. Strat plans need a plan of action for the selection & development of people
	5. Strat plans need to estb a process for innovation & change so that new structure & action plans can be implemented

	THE PUBLIC IMAGE OF LABOR IS WEAK & SHOULD BE IMPROVED
	A poll by Roper in 89 shows that the public image of organized labor is improving
	Polls show an increasing % of the public would side w/ unions in a strike
	In 77, only 28 % initially sided w/ unions, compared to 32 % siding w/ mgt
	By 88, the public's preferences were reversed, w/ 33 % for labor & 25 % for mgt
	The greatest increase in labor sympathies was among professionals & white collar wkrs, the very wkrs unions must attract to regain their vitality
	THE MORE INTERACTION ONE HAS W/ A UNION, THE BETTER ONE'S OPINION OF UNIONS
	A poll shows an increase in the % of the public who approve of unions from a low of 55 % in 79 & 81 to 61 % in 88
	The more contact people had w/ unions, the more likely they were to approve of them
	Unions had a 68 % approval rating among people who had at one time wked in a unionized setting & an 89 % rating where the survey respondent had a family member who was a current union member
	Among current union members, 91 % approve of unions
	These figure indicate a general satisfaction w/ the job unions are doing for their current members
	Most important for the future of unions, 90 % of all adults polled agreed that 'wkrs should have an org of co wkrs to discuss & resolve legit concerns w/ their firm'
	There is clear evidence that a mkt for wkr representation exists

	EVEN WHILE UNIONS ARE IN DECLINE, IT IS NECESSARY TO KEEP THE PRIMARY GOAL IN FOCUS: REPRESENT THE INTERESTS OF WKRS
	As the declines in union membership became more severe in recent yrs, the Labor Mvmt began the long process of critical self examination & experimentation
	Out of self examination & experimentation unions may evolve in some of the directions needed for survival & growth
	The long term prospect for labor orgs to continue representing the interests of wkrs remains good
	The capitalist sys provides strong incentives for mgt to maximize profits & minimize costs
	Wkrs have an interest in protecting wages, benefits, wking conditions, & job security
	The basic conflict of interest btwn firms & wkrs creates conditions that are conducive to collective action by wkrs
	Even if mgt out of a desire to remain non union, chooses to protect & treat its wk force well, there is always the temptation to reduce labor costs through layoffs or erosion of real wages

	ASSOCIATIONAL UNIONS COMBINE THE REPRESENTATIONAL STYLE OF PROFL ASSOC W/ THE TACTICS OF UNIONS
Link	See Also: Associational Unionism
	Individual unions as well as the AFL CIO are experimenting w/ new forms of assoc union membership that does not involve col barg
	Assoc members are provided w/ benefits such as low interest rate credit cards, access to legal aid, & help in job training & placement
	The AFL CIO tested an assoc membership program, trying to get the general public to join an org called the Natl Assoc of Wking Americans

	WHILE OBAMACARE HAS RESULTED IN 11 mm MORE PEOPLE HAVING HEALTHCARE, & IT HAS CONTAINED COSTS, US COSTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE REST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD, PUTTING THE US AT A COMPETITIVE DISADVANTAGE
	Rising health care costs are a major cause of conflict in Labor mgt relations
	The enactment of a national health ins plan would remove this pt of friction from the barg table & thus reduce union nonunion benefit differential
	A national health ins plan would also lower costs & thus make US industry more competitive globally
	Currently the US is at a competitive disadvantage b/c of the high costs of US health care
	Obamacare preserves the private ins structure, but yet it has resulted in the lowest health care increases in decades
	Both before & after Obamacare, mgt has steadily been moving a larger share of health care costs to wkrs
	Mgt becomes less hostile to Labor when unionization does not imply higher health care costs for unionized firms

	CHANGES IN LABOR LAW COULD HELP TO LEVEL THE FIELD AMONG UNIONS & CORPS
	Mgt's ability to resist unionization could also be decreased by changes in labor law
	US labor law is slow, weak, & ineffective in punishing firms who violate wkrs' rights to form unions & bargain collectively
	One proposed legal remedy would be an amendment of the Taft Hartley Act that would prohibit the hiring of permanent replacements during econ strikes
	The enactment of 2 pro labor statues during the 30s, the Norris LaGuardia Act & the Wagner Act, were accompanied by significant public support
	For Congress to enact a pro labor amendment of the Taft Hartley Act would again require substantial support & pressure from the public at large
	To generate public support & mobilized public opinion, unions have been wking on their public image
	The 'Union Yes' campaign has helped Labor's image
	Some observers suggest that traditional images of unions as representing goods producing manual wkrs impedes their ability to organize the wkrs in hi tech & serve industries
	Unions or other types of assoc not affiliated w/ traditional labor orgs may be more successful in appealing to the more educated & professional wkrs

	AM UNIONS COULD ADOPT EURO PRACTICES & REPLACE EXCLUSIVE REPRESENTATION W/ MULTIPLE REPRESENTATION
	Another potential method for increasing union membership would be to follow the approach of W Euro nations & abandon the trad Am practice of exclusive representation
	Under the current US legal sys, before a union can be certified, a majority of the wkrs in the barg unit (BU) must vote for representation
	Although giving up exclusive rep rts may threaten the security of some unions, it may also enhance the quantity & quality of rep received by wkrs
	A choice in rep may make union membership more attractive to wkrs

	INCREASING COOPERATION IN RELATION TO OPERATION OF THE WKPLACE WOULD ENHANCE UNION MEMBERSHIP
	The future of labor mgt relations will be determined by the results of experiments in labor mgt cooperation that are currently underway
	There is the cooperative relationship btwn the mgt of Saturn, a division of GM, & the UAW
	Experiments in wkr involvement or participation among unionized wkrs & mgt are being tried by various firms
	A study comparing the performance of a sample of corps utilizing 3 alt strats in their labor relations: cooperation, union avoidance, & a mixed strat found that cooperation yielded the best results
	Those corps adopting a strat of labor mgt coop had a 1.4 % increase in return on sales over a 10 yr period
	Those corps using a union avoidance strat increased return on sales by .5 %
	Those corps adopting a strat of labor mgt coop had a 18.6 % increase in value added per wkr
	Those corps adopting a union avoidance strat had a 15.1 % decrease in value added per wkr
	The performance of corps utilizing a mixed strat were also below those of firms utilizing a coop strat
	Corp's policies toward labor relations have important implications for financial & orgl performance
	The econ outcomes of experiments in labor mgt coop will determine whether the current interest in such efforts represents a passing fad or a necessary & creative response to strong competitive pressures that are likely to continue in the future

	BOLD STEPS ARE NEEDED IF ORGANIZED LABOR IS TO SURVIVE; THESE STEPS SHOULD BE TESTED & WIDELY ADOPTED IF SUCCESSFUL
	The Labor Mvmt must take bold steps to remain an important labor mkt instit in the next decades
	W/ history as a guide, yes unions will survive; they may lose influence, they may gain influence, but Labor will continue to adapt to the ever changing world econ
	Unions, like any other instit, are reluctant to risk major changes
	For change to occur, Labor leaders themselves, & not just interested academic observers, must feel that restructuring is in their best interest & that it is necessary for survival

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