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Reading: Supplements: SIA |
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Policy Analysis | ||||
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Types of Policy Analysis | ||||
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The Dev of Pol An | ||||
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The Public Policy Process | ||||
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The Role of the Social Sciences in Pol Analysis | ||||
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The Precautionary Rule | ||||
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Social Impact Analysis ( SIA ) | ||||
There are EIGHT SIA Variables | |||||
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SIA Variable 1: Population | ||||
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SIA Variable 2: Community & institional structure | ||||
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SIA Variable 3: Political & social resources | ||||
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SIA Variable 4: Individual & family factors | ||||
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SIA Variable 5: Community resources | ||||
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SIA Variable 6: Knowledge, Beliefs, Values, Norms, Attitudes, Opinions, Interests, Ideologies | ||||
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SIA Variable 7: Lifestyles | ||||
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SIA Variable 8: Economics | ||||
There are THIRTEEN Steps in the SIA Process |
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1. Dev an effective public involvement plan, so that all affected interests will be involved | ||||
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2. Conduct scoping to identify the stakeholders & the issues | ||||
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3. Identify and characterize alternatives | ||||
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4. Define baseline conditions | ||||
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5. Describe & project probable social impacts | ||||
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6. Predict responses to impacts | ||||
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7. Consider direct & indirect impacts, & shortterm , midterm, and long term impacts, & cumulative impacts | ||||
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8. Recommend new alternatives if necessary | ||||
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9. Develop a mitigation plan | ||||
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10. Implement the project | ||||
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11. Monitor the project | ||||
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12. Evaluate the project | ||||
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13. Modify the project as needed |
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- Project: Policy Analysis |
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POLICY ANALYSIS LOOKS AT THE CAUSES & EFFECTS OF PUBLIC POLICY | |||||
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Policy analysis is the method of examination the nature of a course of a line of action adopted & pursued by a govt, ruler, political party, corp, NGO, or some other major orgl actor in order to discover its essential features such as its impacts, it costs, its unexpected consequences, etc. |
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The policy of any orgl actor may be formal or informal, or have both formal & informal components, & may consist of laws, regulations, rules, traditions, practices, etc. |
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An example of a policy occurred when Alexander Hamilton estb. the policy that the US should be debt free |
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The policy on any subject may overlap w/ several other policies, laws, etc. as seen in that energy policy overlaps w/ economic policy, environmental policy, & even military policy |
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Policy analysis is utilized in govt in the executive office, legislature, the bureaucracy, the court, interest groups, & so on |
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An examination of pol an must focus on the operation of bureaucratic orgs |
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To be effective, policy analysis must be an integral part of its broader cultural context | |||||
Pol an is not, and cannot be, a separate “scientific” endeavor with reference to politicians and citizens | |||||
The world of the policy analyst is
decentralized poorly coordinated politicized value laden |
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POLICY ANALYSIS COMBINES SOCIAL ANALYSIS & VALUES ANALYSIS | |||||
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Policy analysis intertwines values and conceptions of moral right and wrong |
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Pol an operates in an env of the influence of decentralized institutions of political authority through a process of both the rational processes and the moral purposes | |||||
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Normative assumptions permeate policy analysis, & each depends on the body that is dev the pol an |
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See Also: Social problems |
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Theorist did not cause the fragmentation of the American policy process, only recognized it |
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The Am system is at its pinnacle which is to say the Am sys's democracy has really came into its own | |||||
While we are at our pinnacle, the questions still remains, can we adapt to the changing world of nationalities, technologies, economic systems, social systems | |||||
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There has been a lack of discussion about fundamental values in policy
analysis.
Abstractions are not helpful as seen is such classic problems as the run away trolley |
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Typical pol an problem: a run away trolley is headed down a track. If you do nothing, five people will die. If you act & throw the switch, one will die. What do you do? | |||||
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In pol an, values are the beliefs & attitudes that guide individual behavior in the policy process |
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Policy analysis encompasses, in the larger sense, all actors in the process | |||||
A distinction between policy analysis and evaluation research is not possible | |||||
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See Also: Values |
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Social science has always wrapped itself in the mantle of objective science, but the values of analytical rigor & logic have given way to political necessitates |
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The analyst in the democratic process:
- collects & organizes of data - applies analytical techniques - clarifies issues - formulates alternatives - makes recommendation |
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In pol an, rational methodology constitutes only one kind of approach to the problem; often the most persuasive one |
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THE ENVIRONMENT OF POLICY DECISIONS IS SOCIAL, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, & EVEN PSYCHOLOGICAL |
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Many tradeoffs & sources of influence inter into policy decisions. |
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The process of pol an is elitist in its deference to the opinions of experts | |||||
Lawrence Tribe notes that policy analysis has an individualistic ethic that is utilitarian, liberal, democratic & egalitarian | |||||
But in pol an there are practical limitations of time & money | |||||
Many social scientists feel that the dislocations btwn the methods of rational policy analysis & the politician, bureaucrat or judge must remain because the two approaches begin from fundamentally different premises & strive for different goals | |||||
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THE ROLE OF THE ANALYST HAS BEEN THAT OF THE ENLIGHTENED, NEUTRAL ADVISOR, BUT THE POSITION HAS LOST IT'S NEUTRAL STATUS, FOR SOME, & BECOME MORE POLITICIZED |
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For the policy analyst, organizational affiliation & issue orientation can be fairly closely interrelated |
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Policy Analysts tend to identify with their agency's ideology | |||||
Policy conflicts within regulatory agencies are often seen as more intense / important than those substantive issues raised by the general public | |||||
The policy conflicts w/in regulatory agencies are often tied to one of maintaining the agencies status | |||||
Integrity is a fundamental standard in policy making orgs | |||||
The point is that even the scientists have their differences: reasonable persons can and do differ. This is a virtue and a defect of the democratic political process | |||||
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Meltsner’s typology denotes that there are those analysts who are more activist and those who claim objectivity. |
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For Meltsner, the Technician most common type of pol an |
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For Meltsner, the Entrepreneur wants a greater voice in policy decisions & is thus an advocate for a particular policy | |||||
For Meltsner, the Politician is dedicated to advancing the interests of the supervisor / agency & thus is a client advocate | |||||
For the narrowly focused pol an, technical studies are most valued by policy makers because this gives them usable data, and the aura of expertise | |||||
But whether they know it or not, technicians must make value judgments | |||||
The challenge for the pol an is to provide a good technical report and yet develop the awareness and interpersonal skills to make that work attractive to decision makers | |||||
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THE CHALLENGE OF ACTIVISM IS TO BE ACTIVE & YET NOT BECOME A PAWN OF ONE'S EMOTIONS, OR OF ANOTHER, IN PURSUIT OF A POLICY GOAL |
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There is no logical reason why a person cannot be an objective professional analyst & an advocate, though most feel that they should not be an advocate |
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If you do assume that the two do not go together, you are assuming that analysis is an objective, scientific form of endeavor that results in unbiased truth | |||||
An example of pol an advocacy is seen when the Justice Dept. overrode the analysts position that AIDS was not an danger to co-workers | |||||
The JD had the right to do this in our political system; they were responding to other constituencies | |||||
If the analyst resigns, that is a moral decision | |||||
So analysts should not be unconcerned about their values, they should understand and examine the normative issues involved | |||||
Some pol analysts have urged a greater degree of advocacy in policy analysis, proposing that the pol scientists should hold court, w/ judge & jury | |||||
The Pol An must combine technical skills with a certain humility about their use, a mature sense of politics and the recognition of necessity and difficulty of reconciling normative concerns |
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THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF POLICY ANALYSIS |
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In the latter part of the 1800s, the belief emerged that rational, scientific methods could be applied to the improvement of social conditions |
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Many applications of rationality promoting or demonstrating the ameliorative effects of rationality dev during the 1800s & 1900s including Taylorism which is a system of wkplace mgt which is infamous for increasing efficiency, & Darwinian evolution which demonstrates how physical (& some say social) change occurs |
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THE ERA OF REFORM |
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The era after the Enlightenment, reaching its peak in the late 1800s & early 1900s has been called the era of rationalization of political discourse |
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At the pinnacle or rationalization, thinkers believed that the administration of policy should be separated from politics | |||||
The Progressive Movement, circa late 1800s to early 1900s, advocated & won increased government regulation including such institutions as the Federal Reserve Board and FTC | |||||
The public wanted govt regulatory, policy making organizations to be independent of politics | |||||
The birth of the rationalization of political discourse & policy an also marks the beginning of the professionalization of academic social science | |||||
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DEWEY ADVOCATED THE PRAGMATIC RATIONALIZATION OF POL ANALYSIS,
BEGINNING TO MOVE IT OUT OF THE 'SMOKE FILLED ROOM' |
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John Dewey was the single most influential source of intellectual support of the application of rational analysis to social problems |
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For Dewey, no useful metaphysical absolute exists |
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For Dewey, we must use the experimental method in policy & be pragmatic, i.e. use the policy that works |
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Dewey thought interest groups represented the interests of the public which presages the beginning of the pluralist point of view |
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Bentley built on the ideas of Dewey in his pt of view that when the groups are stated, formed & able to exert their views, everything is adequately stated |
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Dewey influenced Roscoe Pound who advocated social engineering in judicial decisions |
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For Pound & Dewey, judges should enlist social scientists |
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We still see the utilization of social scientists in the variety of tactics taken by the many courts |
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But while there is still a lot of variety in the judicial system, the true sense of Pound's experimentation w/ the utilization of social science in judicial decisions was never fully implemented |
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We have moved more toward judicial restraint today, & are continuing to move in that direction |
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See Also: Dewey | ||||
THE NEW DEAL | |||||
FDR embraced the importance of organizational activity for dealing with economic problems, as did Dewey | |||||
Dewey advocated that interest groups should be encouraged & so legitimized official recognition of the group interpretation of Am politics | |||||
FDR's New Deal embraced the Pragmatic Phil of doing what works, & not worrying about grand theory or ideology | |||||
The New Deal confirmed ability of Americans to act decisively & effectively in dealing w/ immediate problems | |||||
During the New Deal, any attempt at long range planning and goals which had existed foundered on the power of special interests | |||||
Around the time of the New Deal, scientific issue began to make the national policy agenda | |||||
The Johnson Administration used the theories of, for example, Shaw and McKay, & social disorganization theory, to formulate much of the War on Poverty & the Great Society Programs | |||||
The natural sciences have caused a significant modification of govt structure & policy goals & processes | |||||
Mod soc have experienced a transition from an administrative welfare state to a scientific state | |||||
The trans to a scientific state encourages policy makers to look at goals that can be quantified & to give greater consideration to rigorous analytical argument | |||||
The trans to a scientific state has also changed govt structure | |||||
Govt now has a number of agencies that make science policy, & other agencies have added units for research & development & evaluation | |||||
A major question for pol an centers on whether the technical functions of assessment & analysis can or should become substitutes for decision making | |||||
While science has grown in influence in politics, coordination of the democratic processes w/ science has been left to the social scientist & policy makers, not the natural scientists | |||||
EXAMPLES: ANALYSIS & POLICY | |||||
Operations research is generally quantitatively based & focused on narrow, specific problems such as the optimum deployment of resources during WW II | |||||
The system of resource deployment during WW II operated w/in an normative consensus | |||||
In the Brown v. Board of Education decision in 1954, the Supreme Court used social science to study the effects of racial segregation, thus drawing on the work Pound & Dewey | |||||
In the 1960s, Robert McNamara & his whiz kids were preeminent in the Kennedy admin | |||||
Pres Johnson initiated a comprehensive planning, programming, budgeting system (PPBS) which was later voided by Nixon | |||||
In the 1960s govt agencies begin to use the analytical techniques utilized in the private sector such as surveys | |||||
Economics is often in the forefront in govt pol an | |||||
Keynes heads the Council of Economic Advisers under the Employment Act of 1946 | |||||
But these pol an sciences were not useful in predicting or understanding the Civil Rights Movement (CRM) or the Anti Vietnam War Movement (AVWM) | |||||
The inability to foresee the CRM or the AVWM lead to the recognition of the need to include intangible cultural factors, political problems & organizational variables in pol an | |||||
Many journals and think tanks arose which focused on integrating a broad array of the social sciences into pol an | |||||
Yet, for most social scientists toddy the Great Society suffered from unwarranted faith in scientific rationality, “...all those brilliant apostles of rationality gradually lost sight of the most elementary common sense...” which is to say that the first attempt at the application of a full array of social sciences to pol an was weak | |||||
Of more fundamental importance & long term significance than the integration of social sciences into policy an was the lack of attention given to normative goals & assumptions about American society | |||||
The goals of the pol an & social scientists were only “good intentions” which has placed them on the defensive since the 1980s | |||||
ANALYSIS & IDEOLOGY | |||||
There was a strong belief in the efficiency & effectiveness of the social sciences in dealing with the Great Society programs | |||||
The Great Society reformers were impressed by the ability of organized interests to work within the policy process | |||||
The Johnson admin believed that the route to greater social justice was to enable groups (e.g., blacks) to compete w/ other groups in the policy process | |||||
The War on Poverty attempted to organize the poor by changing the requirements for citizen participation in local govt esp in relation to the allocation of funds for most programs | |||||
The faith of the pol an, the politicians, & the social scientists was part of the culture of social science at the time | |||||
The culture of the pol an, the politicians, & the social scientists now is one of pessimism & retrenchment because of the failure of many govt social welfare programs | |||||
Pol an, et al criticized their own programs & recognized their failures | |||||
In many public policies, nothing worked as planned | |||||
Critics turned social science against them as seen in Banfield’s The Unheavenly City which attacked federal social intervention | |||||
Johnson had attempted to move beyond incremental change & ultimately failed | |||||
Using task forces instead of government bureaucracy cost Johnson political support | |||||
New evaluation techniques showed Johnson's programs to be ineffective; these could have been used to improve them, but were used to dismantle them | |||||
Today many social scientists that Johnson's War on Poverty & Great Society Programs were the best & most comprehensive social welfare systems ever developed & perhaps if they had been given a longer period of time to succeed, i.e. a generation or two, they would have been successful | |||||
The conservative critics of the policies of Johnson based their attacks on assumptions of human nature, questioning egalitarianism | |||||
The conservative critics of the policies of Johnson raises questions about the accuracy of pluralism in general [ and democracy ]. | |||||
David B. Truman's The Governmental Process is a return to Bently & pluralism in its belief that democracy would be protected from extremes of group conflict by the existence of latent, unorganized groups that arise when one group becomes too powerful or threatens the rules of the game. | |||||
The Left notes that the unorganized are left out of the game | |||||
The Right notes that pluralism moves moral judgment to the status of compromise | |||||
Pluralism negates the power of the social sciences | |||||
What is often the most effective today is to combine the social sciences pol an w/ the pluralistic pol an | |||||
Charles Lindbolm's The Science of Muddling Through, 1959, is considered a classic because of its statement & defense of incremental decision making | |||||
For Lindbolm, administrators should eschew long range planning in favor of immediate problem | |||||
For Lindbolm, w/ short term goals, the pol an can more easily identify & operationalize the values conducive to the result to be achieve | |||||
For Lindbolm, pluralism will ensure that interests are not ignored in the process | |||||
ATTACK ON POSITIVISM | |||||
Some pol an believed they could construct a body of knowledge that encompassed all areas of human life | |||||
Douglas Amy believes that positivism survives because it limits, in a politically convenient way, the types of questions which may be asked | |||||
W/ positivism, the aura of science and objectivity adds to the image of the policy analyst as an apolitical technocrat | |||||
Today we see people as:
- remote scientists - pointy headed professors - dirty politicians - great business people - boring, red taping bureaucrats - greedy lawyers |
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Today we rarely see the pol an or the scientist as the hero, the person w/ all the answer as was typically portrayed in the first half of the 1900s | |||||
Science, pol an, academia, etc. has lost credit in the eyes of the public & while they should not be ignored, any science, pts of view, etc. put forth by them should be examined carefully & weighed against the overall body of knowledge |
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- Project: Policy Actors |
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Summary of the Public Policy Process: | |||||
Industry & Interest Group lobbying has influence at all stages of the Public Policy Process, & beyond | |||||
Congress passes laws | |||||
Lobbyists, industry, government agencies, the Public, et al offer "advice" ( Lobbying & Influence ) | |||||
The prospective law is signed or vetoed, or line-item vetoed by the President | |||||
The Law given to the appropriate government agency for implementation | |||||
Agencies make draft rules which are printed in Federal Register for public approval | |||||
Agencies review public comments & write final rules | |||||
Agencies implement rules | |||||
During implementation, rules must be interpreted and decisions must be made | |||||
Courts interpret laws & rules | |||||
The Upper Class directly shapes Government Policy by impacting the Public Policy Process | |||||
Govt. policy & the public policy process is the least recognized by the general public, but it is the area where the public could have great influence | |||||
Several types of Policy are "routine" in that they are specified in the Constitution or Law & occur regularly | |||||
Fiscal Policy is perhaps the most visible Govt. Policy | |||||
Fiscal Policy is the most open to the democratic process & thus highly influenced by the Upper Class, the Corporate Class & the Upper Middle Class | |||||
Fiscal Policy includes primarily Fed law on taxing & spending | |||||
Monetary policy is "insulated from politics" which results in almost no input from the general public & great power by the President | |||||
Broad monetary policy issues include unemployment & interest rates which are “insulated from politics” by independent boards | |||||
The Federal Reserve Board's members appointed for 7 yr. terms during which they set major interest rates and the money supply | |||||
Federal Reserve Board members are very difficult to remove, so a President picks them carefully | |||||
Domhoff on Government Policy |
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1. Domhoff believes that the Upper Class, the Corporate Class & the Upper Middle Class provide most of the money in the political process | |||||
2. Domhoff believes that the Upper Class, the Corporate Class & the Upper Middle Class provide most of the money to fund think-tanks, foundations, university research, etc. | |||||
3. Domhoff believes that the info from think-tanks, foundations, university research, etc. is funneled into the policy process as evidence/data | |||||
4. Domhoff believes that the info from think-tanks, foundations, university research, etc. is funneled directly to the government to influence the policy making process | |||||
5. Domhoff believes that the info from think-tanks, foundations, university research, etc. is funneled directly to the media to influence policy & public opinion | |||||
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The Policy Formation Process is seen as increasingly important in our information age society |
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There are many "Players' or actors in The Policy Formation
Process, that Lobby
& produce Policy Documents Corporations The Upper Class (i.e. those w/ personal fortunes) Foundations Universities ( granting agencies ) Policy Planning Groups ( think tanks ) Govt. Commissions, Councils, etc. National News Media Executive Agencies, President, Congressional Committees, Courts |
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Each of the players in the policy formation process has a direct role in making policy, & lobbying the other players | |||||
Miscellaneous Interest Groups (e.g. environmental groups, gun groups, anti- & pro- abortion, etc.) & the General Public (& organized publics) have input into the public policy process through letters, phone, email, direct contact: spontaneous or "solicited" | |||||
Interest Groups & the General Public (& organized publics) sometimes produce policy documents as do the "Players" discussed above, but more often they simply lobby by voicing their opinion | |||||
Policy Formation Process ( Making Law ) | |||||
Participants in the Env Debate | |||||
Examples of Policy Planning Groups | |||||
Brookings Institute | |||||
American Enterprise Institute | |||||
Cato Business Council | |||||
Heritage | |||||
Council on Foreign Relations | |||||
Committee on Economic Development | |||||
RAND Corporation | |||||
University Boards are influenced/staffed by the Upper Class | |||||
Prof. / researchers understand the political implications of their work | |||||
Blue Ribbon Panels: “independent,” temporary committees to examine special problems: riots, CIA, energy | |||||
The Media is often said to be liberal: becoming increasingly centralized and big money oriented | |||||
Turner vs. Murdock; Time, Newsweek, US News & World Report | |||||
There are many processes for transferring money in the Policy Formation
Process
- Gifts ( donations to politicians & the other players, gifts to universities, etc. ) - Endowments - Grants - Contracts - Direct financing of projects |
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There are many process for transferring information in the Policy
Formation Process including
- Research findings - Personal research reports - Policy recommendations - Reports & news items - Govt. reports - Think tank reports |
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Intro
Policy analysis & policy solutions are only one part of soc change Pol an is considered to be "top-down" change unless it is a reflection of true grd swell of dem support |
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There are several problems of cooperation & the intergration of types of knowledge btwn the soc & phys sci |
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Problems that resulted from social sciences involvement with phys sciences include the problem: |
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1. of teleology. A teleological analysis sees soc as moving to a long-term perfected state |
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But for most social scientists, progress is not inevitable while evolution is inevitable |
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For most social scientists, from the anti-teleological pt of view, scientists should not put "good" & "bad" values on most social changes such as the extinction of dinosauers, or the evolution or development of the family | ||||||||||||||||||||
While it is possible to put values on human changes, that also is not the task of the social sciences; it is the task of politicians, religious leaders, etc. |
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For most social scientists, society should put values on the effects of pollution, but can we judge changes that seem natural? |
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2. that the relations btwn soc & nat are neglected because, for one reason, the soc & phys sci's do not coop enuf |
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3. that people are not seen as beings w/ nat histories |
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There are FOUR unique problems or weaknesses for the soc sci in pol an |
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Problems that resulted from social sciences involvement w/ pol an include the problem of |
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1. determining the role of soc sci in pol an |
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2. determining the role of the soc sci in framing the issues |
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3. focusing on the phys sci & ignoring the pol & soc implications | ||||||||||||||||||||
4. the use of existing categories as unit of analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||
Conflict pt of view of policy analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||
The participants in any policy issue will struggle over the sci results as first step in the policy debate | ||||||||||||||||||||
The participants in any policy issue will struggle over
- the translation of sci into policy - the application of pol - the evaluation of pol - the reformulation of pol, application & evaluation |
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1. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the ed of the public | ||||||||||||||||||||
The lack of public uptake of policy issues is based on ignorance, misunderstanding, cultural conflict, & alienation | ||||||||||||||||||||
Public ed through schools, the media, etc. can reduce some of the problems os ignorance, but it generally cannot overcome resistence people have to knowledge because of their beliefs, values, or norms unless it is specifically designed to do so, & even then the power of ed is uncertain | ||||||||||||||||||||
2. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the ed of professionals | ||||||||||||||||||||
Scientists, lawyers, politician, doctors, educators do not always understand their role in pol debate | ||||||||||||||||||||
Professionals are opinion leaders in that more people will accept their pt of view or their knowledge than they will from other sources | ||||||||||||||||||||
3. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the ed of politicians | ||||||||||||||||||||
Pol have freq used soc & phys sci's to create/bolster their pub pol | ||||||||||||||||||||
While pol create politicization of issues, they are also often caught up in the politicization of pol analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||
To dev a policy that is not purely politicized a politician much have knowledge of the issues if they are to formulate & advocate a new position | ||||||||||||||||||||
4. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the ed of Participants in policy debate | ||||||||||||||||||||
Part in pol debates are either partisan, neutral, or ignorant of a particular pol isssue | ||||||||||||||||||||
Each participant in a pol debate must be approached uniquely in terms of ed or soc change because each wants & has own its sources of KBVN, & they are often not aware of other sources & pts of view | ||||||||||||||||||||
See Also: Participants in env debate | ||||||||||||||||||||
5. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the explication of the human relationship to env | ||||||||||||||||||||
The soc scie can expand the gen understanding of human relationship w/ env | ||||||||||||||||||||
The humanities &the soc sci help people experience or learn
their
- beliefs - values - norms - emotional/aesthetics & their relationship to to a policy issue such as the env, econ pol, welfare, etc. |
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One of the goals of an ed in soc scie is to dev a social ideology (sociological
imagination which allows one to operate w/ all of the ways of knowing (scientific,
emotional, aesthetic, traditional, etc.) on all levels of people's mental
systems (KBVN) & thus to be open to all of the dimenstions of a given
policy issue or social obj
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6. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the analysis & understanding of the role of sci, ed, pol, etc. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Understaning the fundamental roles of soc sci in in policy debate includes the demystification the process of pol an as well as the improvement of the process of pol an | ||||||||||||||||||||
Soc sci has deconstructed science & shown that sci does not always possess the answers & sometimes is used in a misleading way creating mystification | ||||||||||||||||||||
For Redclift & Benton, soc sci has improved the utilization of all sci's by analyzing each sci's proper role | ||||||||||||||||||||
7. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the process of social impact analysis (SIA) | ||||||||||||||||||||
SIA is designed to clearly delineate the social, pol, econ, cul, etc.
impact of a particular project or policy on soc, soc instit, cul, etc.
such as
- specific projects which affect env (logging sale) - world trends in the env (global warming) - env solutions - a prison being located in a particular area - a Walmart being located in a particular area - a change in welfare rules, etc. |
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SIA takes nat science predictions, policy predictions, etc. & then works out soc & econ consequences | ||||||||||||||||||||
8. One of the fundamental roles of the soc sci in pol an includes the process of conflict resolution | ||||||||||||||||||||
Soc sci aids in wking out conflicts btwn soc grps | ||||||||||||||||||||
Conclusiion: Toward an eclectic but unified approach to the melding of the sciences & resolving pol an issues | ||||||||||||||||||||
To meld the sciences & resolve pol an issues | ||||||||||||||||||||
- it is imp to understand soc, econ & pol structures & the processes if one hopes to understand policy issues, soc prob, & solutions | ||||||||||||||||||||
- it is imp to understand our natl heritage from a soci perspective including the place of our evol nature, i.e. our genes & relations among individuals, family, soc grps, communities, nations, world, nature, etc.. | ||||||||||||||||||||
- it is imp to understand that our knowledge base is very narrow for both soc & phys sci's; i.e., we have much to learn | ||||||||||||||||||||
- it is imp to understand that a unified theory of soc sci's is lacking | ||||||||||||||||||||
- it is imp to understand that a unified theory of soc & phys sci's is lacking |
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THE PRECAUTIONARY RULE HOLDS THAT POLICY MAKERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS WHEN SCIENCE POINTS TO UNCERTAINTIES | |||||
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The precautionary rules states that because evidence of harm is uncertain, & error costs are very high, it is acceptable to take precautionary action |
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Precautionary steps must be taken because waiting for evidence may be too late |
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The PR retains a deterministic version of science: its temporary imprecision that will be solved, and then everything will become clear |
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The PR assumes that knowledge itself will not change, just become more detailed |
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The PR may be wrong in its assumption that knowledge will not change because sometimes the old point of view is displaced by a new paradigm or perspective |
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The PR accepts that: |
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- the variables used by one analysis may not be firmly defined |
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- in real world science (as opposed to the lab) there is the possibility of multiple cause effect inferences |
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- circumstantial evidence for cause & effect may be legitimate |
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On closer inspection, all science is circumstantial (principles &
laws are the most firmly est., but even Newton's laws were superseded by
Einsteinian laws)
Will old models fit new situations? |
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A problem for the PR & for pol an in gen is that there is much less of a consensus of knowledge in the social sciences than in the physical sciences |
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The problem for the PR & for pol an of the lack of consensus of knowledge in the social sciences is seen in that there are no laws, the paradigms are in direct conflict & competition, there is little agreement on how the econ operates, there is little agreement on what causes various soc probs, etc. |
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WYNNE’S 'SCIENCE' IS SCIENCE THAT OFFERS PROVISIONAL CONCLUSIONS & ADVOCATES POLICY IN AN UNCERTAIN ENV |
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Wynne holds that we must |
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- recognize the various definitions/gradations of scientific & social actors |
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- solve solutions at various scales |
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- allow that rational people, even scientists can be ambivalent |
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- prediction & control are not absolute |
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- demand that pol an & scientists build in flexibility to their programs | |||||
- not make foregone commitments but instead make tentative commitments & decisions in the area of pol & science | |||||
- allow circumstantial evidence because all evidence is so, & therefore policy an & scientists must develop levels of evidence | |||||
- recognize humans do not only maximize & satisfice, they sacrifice whenever a prog is dev | |||||
Wynne does not recognized that politics, economics, power, etc. chase out flexibility & rational discussion & lead pol an to make hard decisions | |||||
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JURIDICAL SCIENCE |
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The idea of juridical science is that scientists, pol an, politicians, public policy decision makers, agencies, etc. should set up a judicial system to decide issues of science | |||||
Currently society has only the govt juridical system under the Supreme Science Court to judge scientific & policy claims | |||||
The Sup Ct, the Fed Appeals Cts, & the Fed Dist Cts are appointed by the Pres, & confirmed by Senate | |||||
In the jud br of govt, scientists, w/ help from journals & research community (universities, research centers, etc.), present findings to courts to determine “scientific truth” | |||||
Once a ct decides "the truth," only this info may be used in policy making, ed | |||||
The info, "the truth" disseminated by the media is excluded from juridical jurisdiction | |||||
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Some social scientists have advocated that that people not be allowed to disseminated "misinformation" through the media |
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To prevent or limit misinformation through the media, some social scientists & media experts have suggested that side bars tell "the truth" or give the whole story in much the same way that music video pop ups operate | |||||
For many social scientists, for too long the study of the env & other soc probs have focused on the production side of econ | |||||
Pol an, scientists, etc. need to focus on the consumption side | |||||
Conditions of validity need to be set for the discrimination of production solutions & consumption solutions |
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- Supplements: SIA |
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- Project: SIA Short Project |
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- Project: SIA Long Project |
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SIA EXAMINES THE SOCIAL ASPECTS OF A POLICY & THEIR INTERACTIONS | |||||
NEPA defines Social Impact Assessment (SIA) as a method of analyzing what impact a project or action, govt or private, may have on the social aspects of the environment | |||||
The FSH 1909.17 defines SIA as a component of the Envl Analysis process in which social science info & methodology are used to determine how present programs or proposed actions may affect humans | |||||
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SIA is used by many govt agencies, & private orgs, who undertake projects which are so expansive in scope that they may impact lifestyles & ways of life of people in a community or even a region | ||||
SIA is often done in conjunction w/ projects as diverse as a shopping maul, a logging sale, or an auto plant because each of these will have major impacts on the community & even the region in which they are found | |||||
SIA & other social & econ analyses may be integrated w/ the env analysis process, the land mgt planning process, the urban development process, etc. | |||||
THE STEPS OF THE PLANNING PROCESS RANGE FROM GATHERING PUBLIC INPUT, TO ANALYSIS, TO IMPLEMENTATION, TO MONITORING | |||||
A frequently used model for planning any type of project includes the
steps of
1. scoping 2. collecting data 3. interpreting data 4. formulating alternatives 5. estimating effects 6. determining the criteria for making a decision 7. selecting an alternative 8. implementation 9. monitoring |
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SIA SHOULD BE INTEGRATED IN W/ THE PLANNING PROCESS | |||||
The env analysis process has unique tasks in each of the steps of project planning | |||||
See Also: The Env Impact Statement Process | |||||
SIA has unique tasks in each of the steps of project planning | |||||
In scoping, the social analyst conducts a preliminary investigation to identify or validate issues, select key vars for analysis, determine analysis areas, & assess data needs & sources | |||||
The purpose of scoping for the social analyst is to identify public & agency concerns & mgt opportunities & threats | |||||
In data collection & interpretation, the social analyst the depth of analysis depends on the importance of the expect social effects | |||||
In formulating alts, the social analyst should assist decision makers by clarifying the potential social impacts of each alt | |||||
In estimating the effects of the alts, the social analyst should examine all effects, direct & indirect, short, mid, & long term, & cumulative | |||||
In determining the criteria for making a decision, & selecting an alternative the social analyst should w/ the decision makers prioritize criteria & alt & choose the best alt in relation to social factors & the physical or operational goals of the proposed project | |||||
In implementing & monitoring the project, the social analyst should observe the effectiveness of the program, including mitigating efforts through direct observation, conversations w/ knowledgeable people | |||||
SIA OBJECTIVES | |||||
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The objectives of SIA are to |
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1. identify public needs, concerns, & demands |
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2. inform decision makers & the public about likely or potential social effects |
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3. contribute to effective public involvement | |||||
4. contribute to effective collaborative planning | |||||
5. assess effectiveness of program planning, implementation, & soc impact mitigation | |||||
6. operate outside our set(s) of assumptions via scientific assessments | |||||
7. decrease the element of risk of the project or action | |||||
|
THERE ARE EIGHT MAJOR SIA VARIABLES |
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1. Population characteristics | |||||
2. Community & institutional structure | |||||
3. Political & social resources | |||||
4. Individual & family factors | |||||
5. Community resources | |||||
6. Knowledge, Beliefs, Values, Norms, Attitudes, Opinions, Interests, Ideologies | |||||
7. Lifestyles | |||||
8. Economics | |||||
Although every project, and every SIA, is unique, in most cases there is a series of more or less standard steps through which the analysis must proceed in order to achieve good results |
|
||||
THERE ARE THIRTEEN STEPS IN THE SIA PROCESS |
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||||
1. Dev an effective public involvement plan, so that all affected interests will be involved | |||||
2. Conduct Scoping to identify the stakeholders & the issues | |||||
3. Identify and characterize alternatives | |||||
4. Define baseline conditions | |||||
5. Describe & project probable social impacts | |||||
6. Predict responses to impacts | |||||
7. Consider direct & indirect impacts, & short term , midterm, and long term impacts, & cumulative impacts | |||||
8. Recommend new alternatives if necessary | |||||
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9. Develop a mitigation plan | ||||
10. Implement the project | |||||
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11. Monitor the project | ||||
12. Evaluate the project | |||||
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13. Modify the project as needed |
Links |
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Links |
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- Project: Population |
|
||||
1. Population characteristics |
|
||||
In SIA, when examining population characteristics, the assessment shall determine, catalogue, & analyze the: | |||||
- stratification of the affected population |
|
||||
- current struc & org of affected population |
|
||||
- stability or change in the population |
|
||||
- number density, & distribution of residents & visitors including seasonal variations | |||||
- ethnic, racial, religious econ, soc groups, et al, & the distinctions among them |
|
||||
- wealth, poverty, employment, & income dist |
|
||||
- employment sectors in the affected area |
|
||||
- unemployment rate |
|
||||
- types of employed people ( particularly those affected by the action under review ) |
|
||||
- seasonal changes, or other kinds of influx & outflow |
|
||||
- age & sex of residents & visitors | |||||
- amt of immigration & the % of immigrants | |||||
- available human resources such as ed level, talents, skills, training & ed resources, etc. | |||||
- nature of each quality of population according to the various alternatives of the SIA project |
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Links |
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Links |
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In SIA, when examining community & institl strucl characteristics, the assessment shall determine, catalogue, & analyze: | |||||
- the organization of affected communities, both explicitly ( through sys's of govt, etc. ) & informally ( through voluntary assoc's, intl grps, etc. ) |
|
||||
- the econ, soc, or cul inequities among grps based on ethnicity or other factors | |||||
- the experience various grps have w/ change |
|
||||
- how are local grps linked, if at all, w/ regional & natl orgs |
|
||||
- how people & grps are affected by local planning & zoning |
|
||||
- how changes in com & institl variables may be caused by the alternative action(s) under examination by the SIA |
|
||||
- community cohesion which is defined as the degree of unity & cooperation |
|
||||
- com stability & the ability to absorb & manage change |
|
||||
- source & focus of leadership |
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- family & friendship networks |
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- traditions of mutual trust & aid | |||||
- the nature & freq of antisocial behavior, including crime, delinquency, drug & alc abuse, vandalism, racism, abuse against women, etc. | |||||
- child & spouse abuse, fights, rowdy behavior, & other symptoms of stress & anxiety | |||||
- infrastructure & capacity in housing, schools, utilities, streets, highways, shopping facilities, social services, med services, parks & other rec sites |
Links |
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Links |
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In SIA, when examining political & social resources, the assessment shall determine, catalogue, & analyze the: |
|
||||
- distribution of formal & informal power & authority in the community |
|
||||
Power operates on many social dimensions, primarily in the areas of
- authority - politics (voting, elections, etc.) - force & coercion - control of info - wealth & income - influence |
|||||
See Also: Power | |||||
- internal & external organization & exercise of power | |||||
- power, authority, & other political & social resources of the stakeholders, i.e. the participants in the project that is being analyzed |
|
||||
- interests of the stakeholders |
|
||||
- opportunities & threats created by the proposed alternatives to equal access by minorities, handicapped peoples, or other historically exploited grps |
|
||||
- extent to which local, state, regional, fed, intl, et al officials are, or may become involved in the project under analysis | |||||
- past & present evidence of discriminatory practices in the locale & the potential interaction of this w/ the proposed alts |
|
||||
- reaction of the stakeholders to the various proposed alternatives |
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Links |
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Links |
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In an SIA, when examining individual & family factors, the assessment shall determine, catalogue, & analyze the |
|
||||
- factors influencing the daily lives of potentially affected members of community |
|
||||
- patterns of family, friendship, & acquaintance relationships |
|
||||
- residence pattern stability |
|
||||
- stakeholders' satisfaction w/ their ways of life |
|
||||
- concern of the stakeholders w/ what the proposed action would do to their way of life |
|
||||
- possibility that the proposed action would improve or degrade the stakeholders' way of life |
|
||||
- attitudes people have toward risk, health, safety, & the proposed alternative(s) |
|
||||
- values stakeholders ascribe to env, rural life, urban life, etc. |
|
||||
- concern of the stakeholders w/ the possibility of displacement or relocation that may be brought about by one or more of the proposed alternative |
|
||||
- stakeholders' trust of their pol & social instits to handle change |
|
||||
- the extent of family v. singles lifestyles |
|
||||
- the age of the families, & singles & their concomitant lifestyle |
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Links |
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Links |
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In an SIA, when examining community resources, the assessment shall determine, catalogue, & analyze the |
|
||||
- manner in which people use land, whether urban or rural |
|
||||
- manner in which people use the natural env |
|
||||
- subsistence lifestyles that may be affected by the proposed action |
|
||||
- spiritual lifestyles that may be affected by the proposed action |
|
||||
- recreational lifestyles that may be affected by the proposed action |
|
||||
- conflicts among any of these uses of the impacted area |
|
||||
- extent of Native American (or other) sacred sites, or religious uses of the natural environment |
|
||||
- culturally valued neighborhoods, shopping areas, recreational areas, or gathering places |
|
||||
- culturally valued patterns of soc interaction, clubs & other informal grps |
|
||||
- valued hist places, archeological sites, or collections of hist artifacts or docs |
|
||||
- the availability of housing & community services like police protection, water, sewer service, electricity, schools, libraries, & computer access facilities |
|
||||
- manner in which the proposed action affect any of these variables |
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Links |
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Links |
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In an SIA, when examining attitudes, beliefs, & values, norms, attitudes, opinions, interests, & ideologies, the assessment shall determine, catalogue, & analyze the |
|
||||
- public conceptions of appropriate uses of the physical & social resources utilized by & impacted by the project |
|
||||
- scope & intensity of demonstrated support or opposition to the proposed action |
|
||||
- customs & traditions in the affected area that are impacted by or may impact the proposed action |
|
||||
- religious or subcultural orientations toward certain sites or resources that are impacted by or may impact the proposed action |
|
||||
- local perceptions or incoming workers, recreationists, retirees, et al, w/ different lifestyles that are impacted by or may impact the proposed action |
|
||||
- attitudes about econ dev by outsiders that are impacted by or may impact the proposed action |
|
||||
- programs or organized special interest grps that are impacted by or may impact the proposed action |
|
||||
- the extent to which knowledge, beliefs, values, norms, & attitudes, opinions, interests, & ideologies are known & public or not, & cohesive or not |
|
||||
See Also: KBVN AOII | |||||
- the nature & extent of media coverage of local KBVN AOII in relation to the project |
|
||||
- the nature & extent that various stakeholder grps, interest grps, social mvmts, etc. are expressing KBVN AOII, both there own or a wider constituency |
|
||||
- the extent of general KBVN AOII conflict w/in the locale or region in relation to the proposed action |
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Links |
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Links |
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In an SIA, when examining economics, the assessment shall determine, catalogue, & analyze the |
|
||||
- job mkt |
|
||||
- income levels from the various types of jobs |
|
||||
- income levels from the stakeholders | |||||
- consumer spending from w/in the area, from people visiting the area, & those who leave the area to shop |
|
||||
- community econ health |
|
||||
- status level of various types of jobs |
|
||||
- rising & falling classes or occupations |
|
||||
- the relative econ power of the stakeholders |
|
||||
- the relative econ power of the regulatory agencies involved in the proposed action, i.e. the size of the FS in the local econ |
|
||||
- the econ impact each of the various alts may have on the stakeholders & other grps of occupations or classes |
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Links |
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Links |
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SIA Step 1 is the development of an effective public involvement plan |
|
||||
The level of public participation needed varies w/ the nature of the action under review |
|
||||
Complex projects require an SIA to estb the gen character of the community, define potentially affected groups, & determine enough about them to know how to involve them |
|
||||
Simple projects require no SIA, but yet a social analysis can be conducted by consulting w/ local leaders & experts to obtain critical data on which to build a public involvement program (for guidelines see NEPA Call-In Fact Sheet "Public Participation in NEPA Review," February 1998)." |
|
||||
The development of the public involvement plan should be done in conjunction w/ the major decision makers of the project |
|
||||
A small project may be publically complex if it is controversial |
|
||||
Because the level of controversy of the project may not be determined until SIA Step 2: Scoping to identify the stakeholders & the issues is completed, the public involvement plan should be reviewed throughout the SIA process & revised as necessary |
|
Links |
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Links |
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|
SIA Step 2 is to scope the affected population to identify the stakeholders & the issues |
|
|||
The CEQ regulations (40CFR 1501.7) define scoping as any early & open process for determining the scope of the issues to be addressed & for identifying significant issues related to a proposed action | |||||
Scoping is part of the public involvement plan & is an imp part of providing info to the public, & well as getting info from them | |||||
Scoping is carried out in consultation w/ affected grps & through the public participation process | |||||
Like any other study, an SIA must be scoped to assure proper focus & that right methods are utilized | |||||
|
It is important to scope to identify the issues & estb why the issues are important to the stakeholders |
|
|||
To identify the issues, ask
- What is the problem or project? - What are the social implications & issues? - Where is the focus of the project; i.e. how will the public see the proposed project? |
|||||
Scoping must take into acct that a project may be planned at three levels including the programmatic or strategic level, at the operational level, & at the project or implementation level | |||||
A given SIA scoping step should be designed for the appropriate level of the proposed action whether that be the strategic, operational, or implementation level | |||||
Scoping should encompass direct & indirect social effects, short term, midterm, & long term effects, & cumulative effects | |||||
Indirect effects will often result from a direct or indirect biological or physical effect as well as indirect social effects | |||||
To scope to determine the stakeholders ask,
- Who cares about the proposed action? - Why do they care about the action? - How imp is the action or its effects to the stakeholder(s)? |
|||||
There are several steps to determine whether a social issue might be significant under NEPA | |||||
The first step to determine whether a social issue might be significant under NEPA is to web & chain an issue to determine all of its social implications | |||||
The second step to determine whether a social issue might be significant under NEPA is to construct a Stakeholder Issue Matrix to organize, clarify, & summarize the stakeholder grps & the significant issues | |||||
The last step to determine whether a social issue might be significant under NEPA is to determine how the info from the Stakeholder Issue Matrix can help select relevant soc vars to describe the effects of the proposed action & begin forming alts which reflect the issues | |||||
|
The Table on the Stakeholder Issue Matrix demonstrates that the purpose of the Stakeholder Issue Matrix is to organize, clarify, & summarize the stakeholder grps & the significant issues | ||||
A social variable (soc var) is an element or factor of the soc env which may change or be altered (effected) as a result of a proposed action & alts | |||||
Using significant issues identified through chaining & webbing & the stakeholders matrix as a base, the scoping process should identify the soc vars & possible measures needed to describe the soc effects throughout the analysis | |||||
The selection of soc vars should clearly reflect which issues of concern to the stakeholders are imp to the proposed action | |||||
While scoping may identify public issues, the soc analyst must recognize issues that are significant because of their professional understanding of the situation | |||||
|
Utilize webbing & chaining techniques to a stakeholder matrix to identify significant issues |
|
|||
|
Once the issues have been identified & linked to the proposed action & other issues through webbing & chaining, the soc analyst should determine whether an issue is significant enough to be a soc var in the SIA |
|
|||
Factors to consider in establishing the scope include the: | |||||
- probability that an event will occur | |||||
- number of people potentially affected | |||||
- duration of potential impacts | |||||
- values of benefits and costs to affected groups | |||||
- potential for reversibility or mitigation | |||||
- likelihood of subsequent impacts | |||||
- relevance to decisions | |||||
- uncertainties over probable effects controversy | |||||
|
Issues become soc vars based on SEVEN criteria including relevance, significance, availability, efficiency, sensitivity, reliability, validity |
|
|||
|
1. An issue is relevant if it actually relates to the the proposed action |
|
|||
|
2. An issue is significant if the proposed action or other actions affect or are affected by the issue, & the potential effects are important to the decision |
|
|||
|
3. An issue is available if it is possible to obtain data to describe changes in the var |
|
|||
|
4. An issue is efficient if the measurement of the var reduces the need for other data & measure; i.e. vars should not overlap too much |
|
|||
|
5. An issue is sensitive if it clearly registers changes because of the proposed action |
|
|||
|
6. An issue is reliable if measuring it yields consistent results |
|
|||
|
7. An issue is valid if measuring it results in findings that truly represent the condition |
|
FS1900-3
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|
||||
(based on KBVN AOII?) | (based on KBVN AOII?) | Alternatives, Mitigation, etc. | ||||||
1. | ||||||||
2. | ||||||||
3. | ||||||||
4. | ||||||||
5. | ||||||||
The purpose of the Stakeholder Issue Matrix is to organize, clarify, & summarize the stakeholder grps & the significant issues |
Links |
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Links |
|||
Step 3 in the SIA process is to identify & characterize alternatives |
|
||||
Alts are developed based on purpose & need for the action as delineated by the decision maker |
|
||||
The SIA analyst must consider all purposes & needs are & obtain sufficient data on each to frame analysis to dev the alts |
|
||||
The Guidelines & Principles identify basic info about each alternative needed for SIA include |
|
||||
- Locations |
|
||||
- Land requirements |
|
||||
- Needs for ancillary facilities (roads, transmission lines, utilities, etc.) |
|
||||
- Construction or implementation schedule |
|
||||
- Size of the work force (construction and operation, by year or month) |
|
||||
- Facility size and shape (if a facility is involved) |
|
||||
- Need for a local work force |
|
||||
|
- Institutional resources |
|
|||
|
An alt should be designed to |
|
|||
|
- respond to the issues as well as the purpose & need of the project |
|
|||
|
- provide options allowing for informed decisions |
|
|||
|
- provide options that represent the complex of various stakeholders interests in such a manner that each alt will provide "the greatest good for the greatest number" |
|
|||
|
The greatest good for the greatest number principle denotes that several mixes of options in each alt may be equally valid |
|
|||
|
The ultimate goal of the NEPA process is to display the effects of different alts so that they can be compared as to their merits |
|
|||
In scoping, the SIA analyst uses the Stakeholder Issues Matrix to determine the social issues, which are then used to formulate soc vars associated w/ the proposed action | |||||
In forming the alts, the soc issues & vars are grouped together for resolution by alts | |||||
The alts will offer various actions which will address & mitigate anticipated positive & negative effects generated by a particular alt | |||||
Besides the alts, specific mitigations may be developed that address all or several of the alts | |||||
Alts should be designed so that the decision maker & the stakeholders can clearly understand the cause & effect relationships of the issues to various stakeholders in light of a proposed alt |
Links |
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Links |
|||
Steps in SIA
Although every project, and every SIA, is unique, in most cases there is a series of more or less standard steps through which the analysis must proceed in order to achieve good results, including: And some SIA projects may have steps that are unique to it |
|
||||
Step 4 in the SIA process is to define the baseline conditions |
|
||||
To define the baseline conditions, the analyst defines pertinent existing conditions in each potentially affected area, called the Affected Social Environment (ASE) |
|
||||
To define the baseline conditions, the analyst seeks to determine |
|
||||
- the affected populations |
|
||||
- the concentration or dispersal of the populations |
|
||||
- how each pop relates to the natural & built envs |
|
||||
- the histl background of each pop |
|
||||
- the pol & soc resources, pwr structures, & networks of relationship in each grp |
|
||||
- whether low-income or minority populations are involved |
|
||||
- the special needs of grps |
|
||||
- the kinds of cultural & attitudinal attributes that characterize each grp |
|
||||
- how grps about the pol & soc instits |
|
||||
- how the grps relate to the natural & human made envs & to change |
|
||||
- the relevant demographic & econ characteristics | |||||
- the levels of unemployment or underemployment | |||||
- housing availability |
|
||||
|
- access to utilities |
|
|||
|
- the state of the ed system |
|
|||
|
- the state of the trans system |
|
|||
- seasonal or other patterns of in-migration and out-migration | |||||
At a minimum, baseline info should be developed based on existing lit, govt docs, & consultation w/ experts & community | |||||
For a more complicated project, formal studies may be needed to define the baseline info |
Links |
|
Links |
|||
Step 5 in the SIA process is to project the probable impacts |
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Based on the scope of the alts, the analyst seeks to project the likely effects of each alt, given what is known about each alt & about the character of affected pops & area |
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To project the probable impact, utilize the data provided by the involved agencies, the records of similar actions or similar pops, census data & other vital statistics, docs & secondary sources |
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To project the probable impact, the analyst often utilizes primary research such as field research involving interviews, meetings, surveys, & observation |
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There are many ways to project impacts & the method of proj depends on scope, area & pertinent data |
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Impact projection methods include the: |
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- comparative method where the analyst compares the proposed alts w/ similar actions & their effects |
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- straight-line trend projection where the analyst takes an existing trend & projects it into the future |
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- population multiplier method where the analyst examines those actions which /\ or \/ in given pops implying change in other vars such as housing & use of nat resources |
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- scenarios methods where the analyst generates logical or data-based models & plays them out |
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- expert advice where the analyst obtains thoughts of experts about likely scenarios or changes |
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- calculation of "futures foregone" where the analyst examines scenarios where the alts do NOT take place |
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Computer modeling: may useful w/ any of above methods in determining the impacts of the proposed alts |
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Step 6 in the SIA process is to predict the responses to the impacts of the proposed alts by various grps & stakeholders |
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To predict the responses to the impacts of the proposed alts, given the affected grps, the analyst should examine the kinds of impacts that might reasonably be predicted & estimate the likely response to those impacts |
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To predict the responses to the impacts of the proposed alts, the analyst should determine whether leaders of grps will be positive or negative about project |
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To predict the responses to the impacts of the proposed alts, the analyst should examine the grps who are likely to be influenced by leaders |
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To predict the responses to the impacts of the proposed alts, the analyst should determine whether there are ways for the pop to adapt in place, or whether it likely to relocate |
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To predict the responses to the impacts of the proposed alts, the analyst should determine whether a grp can continue to carry out its valued ways of life, or will it be irrevocably lost |
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Step 7 in the SIA process is to consider indirect & cumulative impacts of the proposed alts |
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To determine indirect & cumulative impacts of the proposed alts encompasses several sub-steps |
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Many soc impacts are not direct |
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Indirect & cumulative impacts may occur well after action is taken, & and possibly in areas distant from project |
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Cumulative effects can be of critical importance |
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Many pops, esp indigenous grps & indl grps, are at risk of cul extinction due to a variety of pressures |
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A proj may be all it takes to push a grp "over the edge" |
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In many cases the indirect & cumulative effects are not significant, while in other cases they may the the most significant effects |
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A common type of indirect effect is the multiplier effect |
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Effects of a proposed action may have cumulative effects w/ other projs carried out by the particular agency or by an unrelated org |
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Step 8 in the SIA process is to recommend new alternatives as needed & feasible |
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As impacts are identified, the SIA analyst & other analysts or decision makers must consider which alts might alleviate problems, & wk w/ project mgrs & affected grps to see if these can be pursued |
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The SIA analyst must be sure to analyze soc & other envl impacts of all the proposed alts |
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Where there is contention, mediation is recommended w/ the aim of developing new / more alts that are more amenable to the greatest number |
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The development of new alts should only be done as a last resort & w/ caution when it is determined that a superior alt was not developed but does exist |
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The analysts & the decision makers must avoid "fishing" for a suitable alt since such a process is likely to result in more of a political alt than a scientifically suitable one |
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New alts must be able to be justified in light of the existing stakeholder interests, issues, soc vars & other data |
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- Project: SIA Step 9: Mitigate a Road or other Environmental Project |
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Step 9 in the SIA process is to develop a mitigation plan |
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Mitigation is the process of lessening the severity, force or intensity of some impact of an action | |||||
The social analyst should work w/ proj mgrs & affected grps to estb the mitigation of soc effects |
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The mitigation of physical effects can also have the effect of mitigating soc effects & the mitigation of social effect can also mitigate physical effects | |||||
The SIA & the mitigation plan will be included in pertinent review documents like EAs & EISs |
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The SIA & the mitigation plan are reflected in Findings Of No Significant Impact (FONSIs) & the Records of Decision (RODs) & in docs required under other authorities like Section 106 of NEPA |
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The soc analyst should estb monitoring progs to ensure that mitigation occurs |
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Mitigation can take the forms of direct or indirect mitigation |
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Direct mitigation involve directly reducing the effects of an action |
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An example of a direct mitigation plan is to reduce the amt of timber removed in an area in order to protect a wildlife species | |||||
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Indirect mitigation involves an action that reduces the effects of an action through a trade off or substitution |
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An example of an indirect mitigation plan is to expand the habitat for a wildlife species in another area than the proposed action |
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Step 10 in the SIA process is to implement the project |
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Social actions occur mostly on social related projects such as a housing program, ed program, welfare program, etc. | |||||
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Many projects operate primarily on the physical scale, while some projects require social actions such as training or ed |
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Projects that are primarily physical, e.g. a logging sale, a mine, etc. can also have major social effects | |||||
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Most of the soc actions of a project occur indirectly as a result of the physical aspects of the project |
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Many soc implementation actions occur through mitigation |
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Step 11 in the SIA process is to develop a monitoring plan |
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The monitoring plan has two roles, to ensure that the plans are implemented as planned, & to determine that the effects of the actions are as predicted |
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Monitoring follows & measures the actions of the implementation & the effects of the actions |
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The main purpose of soc impact monitoring is to identify the important discrepancies btwn the expected & actual effects of an action or proj | |||||
Monitoring is on-going for the life of the proj or the plan |
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Monitoring is used to determine whether any adjustments are needed to reduce unanticipated & undesirable effects or to enhance benefits, & to provide info on trends in effects & emerging issues |
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The evaluation of the monitoring results may lead to: |
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- modifying the proj w/ appropriate NEPA documentation or discontinuing the proj |
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- amending strategic plans |
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- supplementing the NEPA docs as needed |
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- conducting additional monitoring |
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- continuing the current course of action |
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Monitoring is done to |
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- validate & improve decision making for future plans & projs & to keep plans viable |
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- improve credibility w/ the public, stakeholders, & impacted grps | |||||
- be sure that max benefits continue to result from actions, that the "greatest good for the greatest number" is accomplished w/ any severe negative consequences | |||||
One aspect of monitoring is to monitor the responses of the soc env to a proj proposal; i.e. the pop, specific stakeholders, etc. | |||||
Another aspect of monitoring is to determine changes or trends in key soc vars, & to determine the effects of the actions on these vars | |||||
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Because not all soc vars need to be monitored, the soc analyst must decide which soc vars should be monitored | ||||
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To determine which soc vars should be monitored, use the Stakeholder Alts Matrix as a guide to possible measures |
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Monitoring should be closely tied to those issues identified as important during scoping | |||||
The process of monitoring involves measuring soc vars that encompass the issue & doing it at regular intervals in a systematic & consistent way | |||||
The criteria for selecting vars to be monitored include: | |||||
- that the vars reflect major issue(s) or area(s) of soc life to be affected by the proposal | |||||
- reliability & validity | |||||
- sensitivity to changes in the soc vars | |||||
- ease of measurement w/ available data, if possible | |||||
The last phase of monitoring is to compare the monitoring results to the baseline conditions & determine if impacts are developing as planned or not |
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Step 12 in the SIA process is to evaluate the project |
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An integral part of monitoring, but not the only role, is the evaluation of the proj |
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Monitoring is essentially simply measuring the outcomes of an action, direct, indirect, in the short, medium & long term, & the cumulative impacts |
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Evaluation analyzes the monitoring data & then judges whether the outcomes are to be viewed as expected or unexpected, favorable or unfavorable |
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||||
Because eval involves judgments, the ultimate goals of the proj, & sometimes touch the strategic goals of an agency or org, eval is often highly politicized | |||||
Because eval involves measuring human performance to determine whether it is in the acceptable range or not, eval involved highly personal personnel issues | |||||
Like monitoring, soc evaluation must take place in conjunction w/ the physical monitoring of the proj |
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Evaluation should be carried out based on the original goals of the proj |
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Evaluation, in general, should compare baseline conditions to the outcomes as measured by monitoring & then determine if these outcomes are w/in an acceptable range, & are in the predicted direction or not |
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It is the processes of monitoring & mitigation that determine whether a the proj has been properly implemented, whether mitigations are effective, & ultimately whether modification of the proj is needed |
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Step 13 in the SIA process is to modify the project as needed |
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||||
The ultimate goal of any project is to plan, implement & evaluate it, & to not need modification; however, it is the mark of an effective analyst, decision maker, & program if it can review itself & make changes as needed |
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Just as the analyst should not add alts for political reasons, they should add alts only as dictated by the scientific review of the issues of the stakeholders, the soc vars, etc., so the analysts & decision makers should not modify the proj except when eval determines that outcomes as measured by monitoring are far outside of the expected or acceptable range |
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Modification of the project can occur at almost any level including
modification of
- goals - stakeholders - alts - implementation - mitigation - eval and more |
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||||
The ultimate modification must always include the possibility of ceasing the action |
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Often modifications involve minor changes in the implementation or mitigation |
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Modifications should be undertaken carefully only after consultation w/ the decision makers, other analysts, the stakeholders, etc. |
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Modification must be undertaken carefully because the original plan & Record of Decision (ROD) are legal docs that are in essence, contracts that can only be changed under particular circumstances w/ consent of the participating parties |
The End
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