Trends, from the TEFF, Leading to Trigger Points
	This file explains the nature of the Trends Leading to Trigger Points from the Firefighting Matrix.  The purpose of this exercise to help the firefighter, in light of the TEFF, track the trends occurring on the fire.  While it is possible to set some "hard trigger points," e.g. Lost the Lookout or humidity reaching 12%, etc., for most situations the firefighter must track the Trends of the TEFF to determine when to modify Firefighting Tactics or Disengage.  It is important to remember that there may never be any Trigger Point crossed, & yet the wise firefighter would change tactics.  If you have comments or advice, please contact me at the locations listed below.  Patrick Withen
						pwithen@virginia.edu
						http://people.uvawise.edu/pww8y/index.html#Top
	LCES WT FFFF		Good		Medium		Bad
I.	L	Lookouts	Good LO in place	Moving farther away from LO	LO becomes less effective because fire &/or crew moves out of sight		No or ineffective LO
II.	C	Communications	Good Commo	Commo becomes so heavy it is difficult to speak to necessary forces	People move into holes where it is difficult to reach them	Weak Commo	Lost commo
III.	E	Escape routes	Good Escape Route in place	Many factors enter into determining whether an  Escape Route is "Short" or "Long:  Terrain & Fuel dependent	Escape routes become longer, steeper, etc. as crew &/or fire change locations	"Long" Escape Route	Escape Route becomes so long as to make it ineffective
IV.	S	Safety zones	Good Safety Zone	With Improvement, Marginal Safety Zone	Deployment Zone	The only safety zone may be a long Escape Route out of the area; very wind dependent	No Deployment Zone & Long Escape Route out of area
V.	W	Weather	"Good" Wx usually in morning, degrades as day goes on	Fire Wx in mid to late afternoon, & often into early evening	Wx also storm & front dependent		Extreme Wx
VI.	T	Terrain	Fire in consistent terrain	Fire approaching critical terrain	Fire just into critical terrain	Fire well into critical terrain	Fire into new critical terrain
VII.	Fb	Fire Behavior	smoldering	creeping	running / torching	passive crowning	active crowning / major runs
VIII	Fr	Firefighting Resources	Fire feels over-manned	More people split off to do other jobs	Obviously not enough people	Undermanned to the extent that fire is lost	Critical functions failing:  LO, Commo, etc.
IX	Fs	Fire Status	Fire tactics going well: good anchor, progressing on line; more line progress than fire growth	Weak anchor:  roll out, spotting, bad position on fire, etc.	Tactics not working well:  must chase spots, roll out, or fire is growing faster than you can line it	Fire making major advances & you are loosing a lot of line	Fire is forcing w/drawl from the line/area
X	Ft	Fuel Type	Consistent Fuel	Fire approaches more volatile fuel (moisture, type, consistency)	Fire into significant pocket of more volatile fuel	Transition to volatile fuel is causing increased fie behavior	Critical Fuel:  flashy, ladder fuel, preheated, pre-burned, etc., capable of initiating blow-up
						Trends.xls       August 10, 2002